SIR Stuart Hampson, the chairman of the John Lewis department store group, may be accused of self-serving scare-mongering by critics of his opposition to Edinburgh Council’s planned congestion charge scheme for the city.
But he came out with a sobering statistic alongside yesterday’s publication of the Imperial College commissioned study into the impact of the London congestion charge on John Lewis’s flagship store in Oxford Street.
The study suggests that, allow
ing for other factors, such as the closure of London’s Central tube line last year and the Iraq war, the congestion charge reduced sales at the Oxford Street store by between 5 and 9 per cent, according to which econometric model you use.
Meanwhile, the London Chamber of Commerce and Industry has previously said that three-quarters of traders within the congestion zone reported reduced takings year on year.
But a crucial difference between the impact of the London congestion scheme and the Edinburgh blueprint now going to public inquiry is that John Lewis calculated that only about 10 per cent of customers at the Oxford Street outlet use their cars.
By contrast, about 50 per cent of customers visiting the company’s store in Edinburgh’s St James’s Centre come in by car. That picture of far greater car use for shopping in Edinburgh is likely to be mirrored among many retailers in the city.
The obvious inference is that a congestion charge in Edinburgh would have a far more Draconian effect on trade than has the London version.
Hampson is also surely on firm ground when suggesting that new retailing blood may be put off in moving to Edinburgh, and contributing to its economic vibrancy, if it knows a congestion scheme specifically designed to put off car-using shoppers is likely to be up and running in 2006.
Even asking incumbent players like John Lewis to plough in further investment on existing sites in the city against this threatening backdrop is like asking turkeys to vote for Christmas.
There are good reasons, both environmentally and in terms of travelling efficiency and pleasantness, for such congestion charge schemes.
John Lewis admits that its commissioned report showed most of its customers said they felt the London congestion charge was a good thing, but would benefit from modifications such as making payment easier and a "charge-free window" in the day.
But it would be sensible to study if there would be disproportionate damage to Edinburgh’s retail business community if such a scheme was introduced. The same applies to the proposal to extend the London scheme further west.
There is a trade-off between environmental concerns and the economic health of communities.
It would not be that helpful to see far fewer cars in Britain’s leading cities if the side-effect was for them to be replaced in previously thriving retailing districts by metaphorical floating tumbleweed.
Egg on their faces? PRUDENTIAL boss Jonathan Bloomer posted some pretty positive Q1 trading figures yesterday - but the insurer’s shares still fell 2.6 per cent to 453p on disappointment that there was no fresh news on the lengthy "sale" of the Pru’s 79 per cent stake in online bank Egg.
There is also doubt that there will even be anything to say at Egg’s AGM, due for roughly about the end of this month.
Some have talked about the £1 billion Egg sale possibly going off the rails. While that is unlikely, it is clear that whichever and however many suitors Bloomer is talking to, they are determined to haggle despite Egg’s sharply reduced Q1 losses also released yesterday.
It may be a frustrating wait, but Bloomer is surely right to play this poker game out to the end to get the best possible price for a business that - notwithstanding its lossmaking French operation - is clearly going in the right direction.
A Large hawk flies by A COLLEAGUE points out that Andrew Large, deputy Governor of the Bank of England, is a perfect example for people wanting to resist peer pressure.
He was the only member of the MPC that voted for an immediate rate rise at this month’s meeting - while the other eight members all voted to keep rates on hold.
When you think the other hawks on the committee include Governor Mervyn King, it shows Large in a distinctly hawkier-than-thou mode.
