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Sales soar by 25 per cent as city property market lifted

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Published Date: 06 November 2009
THERE was a further boost for Edinburgh's embattled property market today with the news that sales have soared by 25 per cent.
More than 2,100 homes were sold between July and September, and the average price is also up by 4.9 per cent, according to the latest authoritative figures from Registers of Scotland.

Although prices are still lower than the same period last year,
property experts say it is further evidence of the market recovering. They say buyers are cautiously optimistic and are regaining confidence.

The figures show that the average house in Edinburgh cost £208,221, compared with £198, 449 just three months earlier. This is 7.9 per cent lower than in the same period last year.

House prices in East Lothian have risen by 12.5 per cent in three months, one of the largest rises in Scotland. Prices in Midlothian and West Lothian also rose, by 7.8 per cent and 6.4 per cent respectively. Registers of Scotland compiles data from all properties sold across the country.

Scott Brown, an estate agency partner at Warners, said the market was gradually recovering. Sellers are also returning to asking for "offers over", rather than a fixed price. He said: "There is certainly a lot more confidence now. People are treading sensibly and cautiously, and we are seeing a gradual improvement. We're now selling around 15 or 16 properties a week, compared to five or six at the worst point.

"Lending is also a little better, although the criteria are still tighter than they used to be."

The new figures show that semi-detached properties in Edinburgh have risen by the greatest amount, and are up by 12.5 per cent in three months. Flats have increased by 5.7 per cent, and detached properties rose 5.5 per cent. But terraced houses fell by 6.9 per cent in price.

Homes in the Capital are still the most expensive in Scotland, compared with a national average of £154,453.

Sheenagh Adams, the Keeper of the Registers of Scotland, said: "These figures show improvements in the market although we received fewer transactions than the same period last year."



Page 1 of 1

  • Last Updated: 06 November 2009 11:01 AM
  • Source: Edinburgh Evening News
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Related Topics: Mortgage and property news
 
1

alfonsa pedrosa,

embra 06/11/2009 12:47:53
Not before time that the property market had a smile on its face,hopefully this should keep a few people happy.
2

Incandescent,

06/11/2009 12:53:31
Where are you CCC? According to you we could "expect to see the market bottom out at -60%"...


CCC?
3

Liz,

Edinburgh 06/11/2009 13:03:26
So prices are 8% down on last year and sales are up 25% from a very low base. I see little to get overly excited about either way.
4

eDUCATIon,

06/11/2009 13:23:20

25% of zero is still zero.
5

Cod,

06/11/2009 14:10:13
Ms. Holly Cockburn (31) of Auld Reekie Estate Agents was reported as saying "I'll do anything to get on TV".
6

Proximo,

still in tracker Heaven... 06/11/2009 16:44:34
Well I used to enjoy reading ccc's comments even though I didn't agree with them all.

It was the other clowns, cutting and pasting articles about the Japanese markets, and prophesizing that Edinburgh houses would lose 90% of their value etc. that were a waste of space...
7

Proximo,

still in tracker Heaven 06/11/2009 16:46:01
Mind you, all this time later, and I still don't think things are any better for first time buyers lol...
8

Single Minded,

06/11/2009 17:49:20
I hope house prices in the Lothians rocket again anyway. The sooner the better as far as I am concerned. I predicted a House Market "vacuum" building up and that's just what is happening. Great.
9

ccc,

06/11/2009 22:18:38
Prices in Edinburgh are, agreed from most people, down about 15% across the board. Some will be above and some below but generally -15% down is the norm.

In my opinion we have a long way to go. Sales figures are dismal. Only once an average persn can afford to buy the average house will the Edinburgh market be near 'normal'.

For me that is a 1 bed Gorgie flat at between 60-70k.

Getting closer but not there yet,

Maybe I am wrong. I have always said 30% down in nominal terms and 40% in real terms was in store for Edinburgh. We are about half way there. 2012 is still the likely bottoming out. Unless of course rampant inflation takes hold. If that happens then house prices will be the least of our worries.

Hello Proximo !!
10

Julian.,

edinburgh 06/11/2009 23:53:56
Hello CCC,

Actually, here's what you said in December 2008:-

"What planet are you on !! We are a LONG way until we get there. Prices have another 30%+ to fall at least."

Well, now we have the figures. In the fourth quarter of 2008 when you made the comment the average house price in Edinburgh was £193,354.

In the third quarter of this year the average price was £208,359.

So, since you made that comment the average 3 month figure, which is a very big sample, has gone up 7% compared to your 30% drop prediction.

I've told you before, and I don't know why I bother. Stop letting what you wish to happen cloud your judgement. Buy your flat now as the days of 60k flats in Gorgie are gone for ever:-)

11

ccc,

07/11/2009 08:01:53
Morning Julian,

We all know these figures are skewed. Let's not get into that one again. :)

ESPC latest report shows prices have risen 15% in the past year. Nobody would seriously argue that is in any way based on reality. Even the ESPC themselves clearly state this.

http://www.espc.com/UniversalPages/Oct09Stat.html

I keep tabs on various parts of Edinburgh - sales prices are down about 15% across the board - with obvious exceptions on the up and downside.

Another 15% drop will take us to where I imagine prices are at a long term 'fair' level.

That means, Gorgie one bed flats at between 60-70k.

They have already fallen from 125-130k to 90-105k.

About half way there.

2012 still seems like the year of reasonable prices being reached. Of course the impications of QE and potetnial inflation may have an impact on these nominal values. Only time will tell.

This game is only at half time. :)
12

techpunk,

laughing in a corner 07/11/2009 09:01:20
ccc post, 18/11/08

"Of course this bust is likely to undershoot and as FOFP points out this is not a normal bubble bursting. Prices could fall 70-80% from peak.

We will have to wait and see. 40% plus is guaranteed in my opinion. Across the board"

why the change of opinion?

you cut me up ccc.

good to see you!
13

ccc,

07/11/2009 17:55:56
"We will have to wait and see. 40% plus is guaranteed in my opinion. Across the board"

why the change of opinion?"


-----------------------------------------
You are clearly very easily confused. Have a read of post #9.

"I have always said 30% down in nominal terms and 40% in real terms was in store for Edinburgh"

-------------------------------------------

Have I missed something....:)
14

techpunk,

07/11/2009 22:49:57
ccc

"You are clearly very easily confused"

sorry...must just be me......

but you did say that there was going to be a drop of "40% guaranteed", which doesn't really wash with "30% nominal" does it?

and what about "Prices could fall 70-80% from peak"

do you still believe this, or have you changed your opinion?

and if you have (which you clearly have, by quote), why have you changed your opinion?

now : that's twice i have asked you that...maybe an answer this time?
15

ccc,

08/11/2009 19:31:24
Prices could fall 70-80% from peak. You see that word - 'could'. It doesn't mean it will definitely. ;)

As for the 40% guaranteed. Please let me know when and where that was. Can't remember myself. I may have. Made a lot of comments over the last few years.

Please explain what opinion I have changed. As for your 'by quote' comment - Please actually provide this rather than just typing it yourself. That does not really cut the mustard as a 'quote' does it. :)

Also how does saying nominal falls of 30% does not wash with '40% falls' ? It is totally possible. Nominal and real falls can be very different indeed. That is why the % change can also be different - with the real falls larger than the nominal falls.

My goodness - I have been explaining this all for years and still people don't listen !!

Julian - as for your thoughts on 60k flats in Gorgie being gone for good ? I had people telling me that about 100k flats in Gorgie 2 years ago. Today ? There are probably 30 one bed flats in Gorgie you could get for around 100k or less.

Nobody knows exactly what is going to happen. My thoughts are predictions. So far they have been pretty good. Better than pretty much any so called 'expert' noted in this or most other papers.

Simple fact is this - if house prices are to fall back to long term levels ? A one bed flat in Gorgie will be between 60-70k.

So all we have to find out is whether prices will fall back to their long term average or not. If I were a betting man I would reckon they will. Not guaranteed of course, but more than likely.
16

techpunk,

09/11/2009 01:09:52
hahahaahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa.

Ha!




17

techpunk,

09/11/2009 01:14:01
ACTUALLY....

hoohhhoooohaaahhaaaoooaahhhaoooaaahhaaa!


wooooooOOOOhhhhHHHHHHaaaaaAAAAAAAAH!


hAHA
HOOO

(parp!)
18

duelay no more,

perth 09/11/2009 06:30:55
Now that the Govt has been printing money at an alarming rate, inflation is just around the corner. Govt can only "afford" its spending, by borrowing against future money ( which they know will be much less valuable than today's money).
So with rampant inflation should we keep our money in the bank to watch it devalue, or take a punt on something that we / or others might need?
My view is that now is the time to accumulate debt against housing, so that you can pay it off with "cheaper" money, in 10 or 15 years time. 125K for the Gorgie flat will look distinctly cheap by that time. Look what happened in the seventies...eighties...history is repeating itself.
19

ccc,

09/11/2009 13:34:54
Duelaynomore,

Fair points. Inflation/deflation is still the big debate. Not certain either way yet. Although I would agree it is likely to kick off sometime. Just the timing is the question !!

As for buying houses to protect from that ? Yes could make sense if you have wads of cash lying around. However how many people does that apply to ? Not that many. Most in this nation are heavily indebted.

I would agree with you - The mad dash for assets scenario for those with huge savings is however a possibility.

However for those wishing to get into more debt to buy property ? Dangerous game. The theory is that inflation will eat away at your debt due to the money reducing in value. Of course that is true - however for this most people will require wage inflation. That is the most important thing. No sign of that on the horizon, in fact quite the opposite.

Also when it comes to inflation it is all relative. Great if you wages double so you can pay off your debt quicker !! However what if the cost of food and transport triples ? The result is that extra debt is an even larger burden than before.

You don't pay off your mortgage with the price of tomatoes :)

it is overall a very interesting situation. Nobody knows exactly what is going to happen. However I am almost certan that Edinburgh house prices will revert to their mean long term averages - one way or another. Via nominal falls or real falls due to inflation.

Either way the 60-70k Gorgie flat will become a reality once again in my opinion. Whether that falls to 70k, or wages double and it falls relatively. That is the only real query as far as I can see.

Britain is in huge debt. That is not going away any time soon. The gradual slide in prices looks like continuing as far as I can see.

30% nominal/40% real (Or thereabouts) and a bottom in 2012 or later - has been my general prediction since 2007. My confidence levels of this are about the same today as they were in the Summer of 2007
20

ccc,

09/11/2009 13:35:25
Cont...

Anyway cheers for the chat. Ever so slightly more interesting than Techpunk's efforts :)
21

techpunk,

09/11/2009 21:01:07
pfffffft!

(ha).

i hope your folks are still up for you renting the back room for the next "cycle".....is that, like, another 14 years?


hahahahahahahahahahahaaaaaa!

(poor baskets)
22

ccc,

10/11/2009 09:34:35
Almost got the cycle right. The last few cycles have been 18 year cycles. 12 years up then 6 down (Or flat in nominal terms and falling in real terms)

Fred Harrison wrote a book about this years ago. Not to say past cycles can guarantee what will happen in the current one. However it gives a fair idea.

And remember - this last boom has been the largest this country has ever seen. You really think, based on this, that the downside is going to be hugely shorter than previous cycles ?

Not likely is it. Not impossible but I wouldn't bet my money on it. And by buying a housee today - that is exactly what you are doing.

Don't worry - If I decide to buy a house in cash in 2012 I won't rub it in. In terms of price falls and my savings. I am about half way there. Surely in these days of personal debt mountains - my plan should be well received....
23

techpunk,

10/11/2009 22:43:09
this media!
it/s (in my opinion)
just awful.
it really is.
so just "fight the power"
because everything else is just noise.

(cup of tea, love?)

 

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