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Developers gamble on city's market being safe as houses



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Published Date: 08 May 2008
HOUSEBUILDERS are lining up a string of new developments in Edinburgh, despite the credit crunch meaning there are fewer buyers in the market.
While some developers have been scaling back the number of projects they take on, others are looking to gamble on the economic situation improving.

Among them is Cala Finance, the funding arm of Cala Group, which today insisted it was still confid
ent about investing in Edinburgh as it unveiled plans for a new development.

The company has linked up with Lothians developer Change Homes to create a mix of family townhouses and flats in Colinton.

Cala said that now was the time to develop so that projects will come on to the market as lenders ease the strict criteria for approving mortgages.

Jim Ross, managing director of Cala Finance, said that there will be high levels of "pent up" demand as many buyers will currently be choosing not to move or opting to rent rather than buy.

But he expects that when conditions improve, there will be a glut of fresh buyers coming on to the market.

"In periods of uncertainty we believe people stay out of the market and that creates future demand," said Mr Ross.

"Markets are definitely cyclical. We just don't know at this stage how long the cycle will last. There is a lot of unmet demand at the moment, but in due course these people will come back.

"They might rent for a few months or wait and see what happens in the market but they want to buy and they will buy when the market is right."

Cala Finance's link-up with Change Homes will see seven one, two and three-bed apartments with a market value of between £185,000 and £300,000 being built, as well as three family townhouses at around £445,000.

The development, at West Mill Road, represents a £3.4 million investment for the companies, with the money being provided by Cala Finance by means of a loan.

Change Homes also allows buyers to adapt some of the interiors, fittings and colour schemes, which it said helps it attract custom. Cala Finance is looking for other similar opportunities.

Cala Finance has also recently funded a £7m development by Macfarlane Homes in Edgehead, Midlothian.

Scott Fairgrieve, chairman of Change Homes, said: "We have a shortage of houses in Edinburgh and the Lothians.

"This credit crunch is scaring people just now but we'll be starting on site this month, it will then take 14 months to build and we've set aside up to six months to sell, so we think in 18 or so months this whole credit crunch will be in the past."

But Faisal Choudhry, a researcher for estate agent Savills, sounded a note of warning. "New build has been slow for the last four or five years," he said.

"Even before the credit squeeze we talked about the difficulties of getting the mix right."





The full article contains 499 words and appears in Edinburgh Evening News newspaper.
Page 1 of 1

 
1

,

08/05/2008 12:56:12
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
2

Florentine_Pogen,

Death Row 08/05/2008 13:37:10
I'm outraged, where is today's story on Kenny"Oxygen Thief"Richey ?
3

Annoyingboi,

Edinburgh 08/05/2008 14:00:12
Ha ha keep on talking guys, nobody believes you any more!
4

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

08/05/2008 14:07:25
"Markets are definitely cyclical. We just don't know at this stage how long the cycle will last."

We have some idea. The last credit bubble burst in 1929 and the one before that in 1873.

I'd expect 100% mortgages to return some time in the 2070's.

There is one thing that ought to worry them though. The Primary Asset, which this time was domestic housing but has in the past been stocks or even tulip bulbs, usually changes between credit cycles.

That would mean that even if they're right and the mortgage securitisation business does return (allowing 100% mortgages etc again) people will be bidding up the price of some other asset rather than housing when the next credit bubble peaks. Since that won't be until 2070 or so (it's a three generational cycle), that's a very theoretical issue for most of us.

My conclusion: these guys have conflated the long credit cycle with Britain's normal 18-year housing cycle. Housing will return to normal when this bust is through, but normal will look more like housing in the 1970's that that in the last 25 years as the credit cycle peaked. Easy credit for the masses is dead and buried for the forseeable future.

References: If you want to read the technical stuff rather than my summary, see Leigh.G.Skene's "Cycles of Inflation and Deflation".
5

ccc,

08/05/2008 14:11:55
It always astounds me that you can get far better analysis in the comments section ratehr than the actual article.

If I want to I will be buying my first place in 2012. Hopefully mortgage free. I can't wait to hear all the 'Renting is dead money' brigade rubbing it in then......
6

ccc,

08/05/2008 14:11:56
It always astounds me that you can get far better analysis in the comments section ratehr than the actual article.

If I want to I will be buying my first place in 2012. Hopefully mortgage free. I can't wait to hear all the 'Renting is dead money' brigade rubbing it in then......
7

,

08/05/2008 14:21:41
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
8

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

, Newington 08/05/2008 15:27:08
CCC: my plan is also to buy my first place at the bottom of this cycle. I'll similarly be eschewing a mortgage.

2012 would sound reasonable for a bottom. Our worry should be that the government is interfering and trying to delay or prevent the cycle.

This won't work of course, and will waste vast amounts of taxpayers' cash. However, history should give us caution.

In the 1929 credit bubble, repeated interference by the US government turned what looked to have been a 4-year deflation into a 14 year depression. They repeatedly aborted recoveries by interfering in various markets.

Similarly Japan's credit bubble burst in 1989. The government refused to let insolvent banks and companies simply go bust. The result was that rather than 20% deflation over 3 or 4 years, they had around 1% deflation for 19 years. Cheeringly, property fell by 90% in the large cities. Dispiritingly, it fell over 19 years - bad news for those waiting to buy at the bottom, which is pretty much now.

So far at least, our government seems to want to follow these examples, meaning we may need to wait until 2027 for the bottom.
9

Sods Law,

EDINBURGH 08/05/2008 17:10:57
102 Moredun Park Road, you are about three years too late, bellway are already there. Unless you are going to knock down the new school
10

Proximo,

08/05/2008 19:12:37
In a years time all will be back to normal and big fat house price increases, year on year will be the norm again. This is a minor blip and has happened before and will happen again. I'm quite sure of it. Don't believe the hype. Too many people - not enough houses.

Now if the financial service sector job market collapsed - well that's a different thing altogether...

I'm in a 200 grand house with a 100 grand mortgage. But I've had a 110% several times in the last 10 years - am I bovered? (thank you, thank you, thank you Northern Rock, I couldn't have done it without you!)

11

Plodjfriss, Hammer of the Numpties,

Edinburgh 08/05/2008 19:36:00
"In a years time all will be back to normal and big fat house price increases, year on year will be the norm again."

You can bet your bottom dollar on that.

Only problem is that if the bet goes wrong it could be just a little bit expensive.
12

ccc,

08/05/2008 20:44:44
Proximo.

Simple question. Why would people listen to the hype on the way up but ignore it on the way down....

£10k if you can answer me that one. Good luck. :)
13

Proximo,

09/05/2008 09:04:10
ccc

But do they believe the hype, in either direction? On the espc site today it 'looks' like business as normal i.e asking prices seem to be what I would expect, only a few 'fixed price'. In March there were many fixed. Ok, I dunno yet what they'll go for but it already looks like business as normal for this time of year. But that's not a particularly exciting news story is it?

Greed and/or optomism I guess is the quick answer to your question. And the need to buy a roof over your head. And what is to ignore? That your house purchase might not make you quite as much money, so quickly, as it might have done in recent years? So?
14

ccc,

09/05/2008 10:14:06
Proximo. I get it, you must be an estate agent. Just admit it.

A 'Few'' fixed prices !! Are you actually mental ?

I just did a search of ESPC for ALL PROPERTIES in North, west and North West Edinburgh.

RESULTS:

Fixed and offers over = 985
Fixed only = 501

So over 50% of all properties in this area are fixed price !!

10k if you can tell me how that is 'a few'....


Next ridiculous theory to be blown out of the water....
15

Proximo,

09/05/2008 10:32:29
hi ccc

Ok, fair enough. I only checked in my local area. City-wide, with all the new-builds that don't seem to be such a great asset just now, probably so...But let's see what happens, I am sure it's a blip and will soon get back to normal. Have to say it is not a big deal for me personally, nor anyone else that I know. And hopefully the blip might help a few just starting out I guess.

I'm a nurse for my sins. What about you?

16

ccc,

09/05/2008 12:08:57
I work in a bank, pays the bills....

I see where you are coming from but you seem to miss the main point. The last 5 years have been 'abnormal'. What is happening is we are getting back to normal. People just cant see this. They have got so used to this that they cant see the simple facts.

125% mortgages.
House prices rising at 20% per year.
People getting mortgages 7 or 8 times their salaries.
Average houses costing 8 times the average salary.

The above is not normal. We are simply returning just now to what is normal. It is a good thing in the long run. However some may be hit hard. Way of the World I am afraid.
17

Proximo,

09/05/2008 14:15:51
ccc

I think from what you are saying that more than the last 5 years has been abnormal.

My first flat cost me 33k in 1992. I sold it 6 years later for 48k. My 2 houses since then have been even better.

Ok, I wasn't offered 110% mortgage, but we had a 95% one and I was aware than several of my friends and family who were also 1st time buyers had 100%. Plus all legal fees were added on to the term loan. The only down side was we all had endowment mortgages...aaaarrrghhh!

My point is this - if you have been in the property market as a house owner for around the last 20 years then big profits each year are normal - not abnormal- and I do think that your 5 years is far too short.

Also, I have lived outside of Edinburgh before and do appreciate that the housing market here is very different to most of the rest of Scotland- certainly was over the mid to late 90's - almost no growth compared to here.

Actually, looking at your figure of 20% a year, maybe you are right. Even when I thought we did great to get what we did on that first flat, I guess it works out at close to 50% over 6 years? You work in a bank, you tell me! Which is under 10% a year (I think!).

Ach well...

 

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