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Buy my house and I'll give you £50,000

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Published Date: 17 June 2008
A HOUSE-SELLER has become so desperate to clinch a deal he is offering £50,000 cash back to the buyer of his home.
The four-bedroom house in Queensferry Road has been on the market for several months at a fixed price of £599,000 but interest has dried up.

Malcolm Young, 57, wants to move his wife Yvonne, 45, and children Callum, ten, and Sarah, eight, to Northern Ireland, where he has business interests.

However, their move has been held up by the credit crunch draining the confidence of buyers and lenders. Rather than lower the asking price from its market valuation, they have decided to offer a cash incentive which would be paid on completion of the deal.

Cash back offers are often used by developers of new properties, but experts believe in the current climate owners of second-hand homes may have to use them too.

Mr Young, a business psychologist like his wife, said: "We love the house and have lived there for 16 years. It's a lovely old property with a big garden and has been great for the kids.

"We had a bit of interest when it first went on the market and we expected things to pick up over the last few months, but, if anything, it has dried up completely."

He added: "We believe the house has been valued correctly and I expect anyone who wanted to buy it could get a mortgage against the full value.

"So, rather than reduce the asking price, we decided to offer cash back, which helps with stamp duty, legal costs, and moving."

The family's difficulty in selling their house is a clear sign of problems in the upper end of the Edinburgh property market, which, had previously been seen as immune to the UK slump.

The credit crunch has reduced the average value of homes in Scotland to just over £150,000 – down from more than £160,000 when the market peaked last year.

Many sellers in Edinburgh have preferred to sit it out and wait for the market to improve, rather than make concessions.

But experts believe those determined to sell now will have to be inventive to clinch a deal.

David Marshall of the Edinburgh Solicitors Property Centre, said: "Maybe we are starting to see more incentives being offered.

"It is more unusual with second-hand properties, but it is a good way of making your home stand out."


Page 1 of 1

  • Last Updated: 17 June 2008 11:08 AM
  • Source: Edinburgh Evening News
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Related Topics: Mortgage and property news
 
1

Randan,

17/06/2008 12:11:49
As they say in the mortgage adverts: The value of your property can go up or down.
Looks like it just went down mate! Still you've had it for 16 years so even if you drop to a more realistic price you'll still make a whacking profit.
2

Edinburghs Finest,

17/06/2008 12:12:00
But surely you would still pay Stamp Duty on the £550,000... why not just lowere price to 500k
3

Sarcasm,

17/06/2008 12:13:14
Meanwhile in other non-publicity seeking events, other house sellers simply lowered the asking price thereby decreasing the loan to value ratio and making mortgaes easier to get.
4

Claire22,

Edinburgh 17/06/2008 12:14:09
This house has been on the market for longer than a few months.

If it is not selling, then the sad and harsh fact is that it is too expensive.

After all it is £600,000 for a house on a very busy road.

I can't believe that someone who could afford a mortgage on this would be influenced by a cashback offer. Why doesn't he just cut the price?

5

,

17/06/2008 12:15:50
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6

Moron Slapper,

Edinburgh 17/06/2008 12:16:43
This is a stupid tactic when used by developers selling new property, for an individual to do this is stupid and deluded. You need a reality check, the house is only worth what someone will pay for it; if it is not selling it is too expensive lower the price! No need to hide behind smoke and mirrors. Moron.
7

Sarcasm,

17/06/2008 12:16:57
Mr Young, a business psychologist, thinks it makes sense to use the Edinburgh Evening news to publicise a £600K house for sale.

Thankfully it's none of my business.
8

allknowing,

17/06/2008 12:17:37
Got to agree with number 4.

QFR is very busy most of the day, and VERY bad at rush hour.

Not only is it a pain just leaving your house during thesr times, the noise and pollution would be unbearable.

If the owner is reading this, i will sincerly give you £225K right now for it!
9

,

17/06/2008 12:19:32
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10

Duncan in Edinburgh,

17/06/2008 12:20:36
"We believe the house has been valued correctly".

Well I'm afraid you're wrong. The value of a property is the amount someone is prepared to pay for it. You have amply demonstrated that no-one is prepared to pay the price you have set.

11

Duncan in Edinburgh,

17/06/2008 12:21:09
#9 Ach, snap.
12

alex paterson,

embra 17/06/2008 12:23:28
Why not £25,000 cash back and £25,000 of the price,sound a lot better.
13

Brian Ferrari,

17/06/2008 12:23:49
Busy road mate. That's your problem.

For £600K (or for £550K for that matter) you'll choose a quieter location.

That's my FREE psychoanalasysis of every buyer out there that has that much wedge to burn.
14

Alembic,

Edinburgh 17/06/2008 12:25:26
Business psychologist...hmmm....
15

Brian Ferrari,

17/06/2008 12:27:17
And another thing:

There's no way any surveyor worth his salt will stick a value on the property of £600K when they know that the price is £550K
16

,

17/06/2008 12:28:24
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17

Victoria Ian,

17/06/2008 12:32:50
Free advertising in the Evening News- beats paying for the Gallery section in the ESPC!!

Also, the stamp duty will be on the full whack so these tactics are a bit daft but good luck mate. Very nice houses there so I disagree about the main rd being a big turn off.

18

alex patersons English teacher,

17/06/2008 12:34:19
13
£25,000 of the price is £25,000,a bargain in deed.
19

alex patersons English teacher,

17/06/2008 12:36:12
18
the main road is about the same size of turn of as any other,enough to get removal van in.
20

Edward,

17/06/2008 12:39:12
The clue is in his occupation!
'Mr Young, a business psychologist like his wife'
21

Brian Ferrari,

17/06/2008 12:42:46
#18 Victoria Ian

So you live on a busy road then?
22

Liz,

Edinburgh 17/06/2008 12:45:55
What a pillock.

If it is not selling he is obviously asking too much for it.

He had better cut the price now and hope for a quick sale or he could end up chasing the market down once prices really start falling here in Scotland.

23

Edward,

17/06/2008 12:47:41
This is their business website http://tinyurl.com/5qasep
24

Brian Ferrari,

17/06/2008 12:48:09
Where's ccc?

This sort of thing is right up his street.

See!! See!! See!!
25

Agadoo,

17/06/2008 12:49:02
Stamp duty is 4% over £500,000 and 3% below. So if the seller reduces the price to £499,999 and does away with £50,000 rebate, the total price (including stamp duty) is £514,998.97.

At £559,000 with stamp duty of 4% and a rebate of £50,000, the total price is £531,360. Why pay 4% stamp duty on a rebate? Madness!
26

Metal Mickey,

17/06/2008 12:54:16
"We believe the house has been valued correctly" But that doesn't mean that someone HAS to buy at £599,000!
27

Angus R,

17/06/2008 12:54:20
nae tram link mate, there's yer problem.

Although i agree he should lower the price i think the idea of the cashback is to pay the stamp duty and costs invloved in moving etc that can't be added to your mortgage. I reckon anyone that can afford over a half million squid house has a little stashed away for a rainey day though.
28

Detector,

17/06/2008 13:00:39
Agadoo - your analysis is partially correct - you will pay stamp duty of 4% over £500,000, which is correct, but you'll be paying it on the price paid - £599,000 - not on the value less rebate. His objective is to pay your stamp duty plus a wee incentive.

Thus, total price is £599,00 + 4% (£23,960) = £622,960 - the rebate comes after the purchase, so you'd be liable for £23,960 stamp duty. Less rebate, all in would be £572,960 - that is £41,600 more than you surmised. Ouch!
29

ccc,

17/06/2008 13:06:03
Been warning of this sort of thing for ages. Only going to get worse.

What can I add that has not already been posted above. His idea bout the 'valuation' is simply the usual denial that people in this situation put themselves through.

Once people start to break rank and SERIOUSLY Lower prices to get out quick then the mayhem will really begin.
30

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

17/06/2008 13:09:06
His problem is that he's not in Edinburgh. Edinburgh is protected by Fairy Dust from the ravages of the credit bubble.
31

Its so Vriesy,

Edinburgh 17/06/2008 13:09:21
Simple laws of the difference between value and worth apply here....
32

Edward,

17/06/2008 13:10:51
Me thinks the house was never valued at £ 599,000 in the first place, I would probly think that the true value is £ 449,000, but its the old game of buy it for £ 599,000 Ill give you £ 50,000, so you think your getting a bargain at £ 549,000, but in fact the seller is making an additional £ 100,000 more and your stuck
33

Edward,

17/06/2008 13:12:33
its a bit strange though that this guy's business is based in Scotland and claims to have many Scottish NHS trusts as clients, yet they are moving the business to Northern Ireland - something not quite jelling here
http://www.savageyoung.com/content.asp?contentid=23
34

Raoul Duke,

17/06/2008 13:16:06
What most people above have said, complete idiot.
35

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

17/06/2008 13:17:34
I'm not sure it was clever to publicise his cashback deal here. The lenders are already pulling back from cashback on new properties because essentially it means that what looks like at 90% LTV loan on paper is in fact a greater than 100% loan in reality. When prices are falling, this isn't the business lenders are looking for. If they see cashback deals on secondhand housing, they're likely to look askance at large LTV loans for those too.

As someone else pointed out, it's also a means to put more cash into Alistair Darling's pocket.

I can't for the life of me see what's wrong with just dropping the price. Is he scared the neighbours will take up torches and pitchforks?
36

Lord Psycho Sexy,

Edinburgh 17/06/2008 13:17:45
No. 30.

Isn't your favoured term "carnage"? You do prattle on.
37

Bob 2,

17/06/2008 13:27:24
best comments

5 gods lovechild,17/06/2008 12:15:50
its about time people stopped being so greedy , house prices are rediculous and in most cases simply not worth the asking price

watch any of these House Programmes and they are obsessesd with the Price.

Best one is were people take a look at House with a badly decorated interior....valuation £100k, they do a bit of a makeover, spending £5k, value £120k.....same people come along and say hey , we might make an offer
...are these people stupid....pay £100k and decorate it yourself...and your still left with £15k to waste on something else
38

Bob 2,

17/06/2008 13:30:02
great publicity though and all FREE courtesy of the EN, does anyone realise the price of an ad in the EN or even the ESPC.

maye the EN could have a featured house for anyone that is looking for people to pay over the odds for a house!!!
39

Chris.J,

Edinburgh 17/06/2008 13:35:42
Hang on, I'm confused. Surely this is the same rag that was reprinting any old Estate Agent's "market ramping" PR about Edinburgh prices continuing to defy the rest of world economy? Just look at "City still hot property despite prices slump" and similar pathetic stories in the column to the right...

And as per other comments - this house is clearly overpriced.
40

ccc,

17/06/2008 13:37:42
#37.

Yes I do 'prattle on'. I prattle on with the truth. I prattle on with great FREE advice for people who have been thinking about buying somewhere recently.

I prattle on with information that the vested interests from inside the property 'game' have been keeping quiet from the masses.

Whether you like what I say or not does not matter. I am right. Deal with it.
41

ccc,

17/06/2008 13:40:24
#41.

Spot on. Except you can probably replace your last sentence with the following...

"Edinburgh is clearly overpriced"

:)
42

MainStream,

Edinburgh 17/06/2008 13:47:21
Why all the sarcastic and objectionable comments simply because this gentleman wishes to add an incentive to sell his property. The location is no worse than staying in certain other parts of Edinburgh and as for this gripe about Stamp Duty the gentleman has clarified in the article that the cashback is to "help with stamp duty, legal fees and movings costs" It does not suggest that he is trying to pull the wool over the eyes of a prospective purchaser. Are these comments coming from persons who simply are jealous that they could not afford but would love to own such a property? I hope this plan works for him and his family.
43

,

17/06/2008 13:47:42
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44

Lord Psycho Sexy,

17/06/2008 13:50:45
No. 42

You do your fellow Edinburgers a huge dis-service. It's not difficult to put 2 and 2 together and work out what is likely to happen in the current climate.

For some reason, you seem to think you're the only enlightened one; tunnel vision.
45

ccc,

17/06/2008 14:11:49
#46.

"It's not difficult to put 2 and 2 together and work out what is likely to happen in the current climate.

For some reason, you seem to think you're the only enlightened one; tunnel vision."

I think you will find I have been 'prattling' on about this for a lot longer than the 'current climate' was obvious.

I have been warning people on another forum I visit of this for over 18 months. I have telling all this to friends and fanily for over 2 years.

Funny thing is very few of them listened.

Now they all want my advice....
46

The Central Scutinizor,

17/06/2008 14:40:21
I must be missing something here - £599,000 asking price where you recieve £50,000 back - falsely upping the asking price and then settling for the price you really wish by then marking it down with a 'generous' offer of cashback?? isn't that the same as a shop selling a fridge valued at £300, marking it up to £400 and offering £100 back, so buyer ends up paying the £300 anyway?
47

My opinions count for more than yours,

because I'm special 17/06/2008 14:55:23
49.

If the 50k is in cash, it would be of value to someone who needs to improve his liquidity position.
48

Chris,

Edinburgh 17/06/2008 15:08:05
#49: They are both business psychologists, playing on people's gullibility.
49

Fredster.,

17/06/2008 15:13:16
My friend would love a swap deal.. he lives in a penthouse, with great views of the city. Can also see the Castle and Arthurs Seat, and even Fife on a clear day!

Its 15/4 Littlefrance House Moredun :)
50

Jimmy the Pie,

17/06/2008 15:16:35
I'm surprised the headline didn't read.

"SNP policies slash value of family's house".
"Red Wendy calls for inquiry at once"

By Hamish Macdonnel
51

,

17/06/2008 15:39:04
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52

,

17/06/2008 15:39:53
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53

,

17/06/2008 15:54:19
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54

ccc,

17/06/2008 15:56:31
#56.

I love the hoards of people turning up now who are joining the 'I also knew all along' Brigade. Quite laughable really.

I have been told for the last 2 years "You must buy a house", or you will "Be left behind", and you will "Miss the boat".

I have not been sucked in by this nonsense. If you have missed one boat another will come along sooner or later. That is obvious to anyone with half a brain.

I have simply made sure I have no debts and a nice wad of savings. As for predictions if you go by previous boom and busts in the UK housing market then about 4-5 years will be the very bottom of the trough. That is when I will 'think' about buying somewhere, depending on the situation at that time.

Amazing how people like me are suddenly the 'smug' ones.

We have had to listen to nonsense for years of all the masses telling us 'how much their house was worth' and how much 'profit they had made', whilst sitting there looking down on us 'non-homeowners'.

Yes I am smug. And so I should be. I have paddled against the tide, done the opposite of what everyone has been telling me to do, and I am going to come out on top. :)

The majority are simply jealous of people like msyelf who have the courage and sense of our convictions to do something different.

The chickens are coming home to roost. Just like we told you they would.

Deal with it.

55

FrankGallagher,

17/06/2008 16:18:52
This house is near mine and has had the 50k cash back on it for over a month...great reporting EEN, lets scare monger some more folk
56

,

17/06/2008 16:22:32
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57

Rambo_the_Jambo,

Edinburgh 17/06/2008 16:25:21
ccc

Your argument about 'buy now or miss the boat' is purely subjective, depending on how long you have deferred buying.

Are you too young, don't have enough money to buy, etc?

If you had bought five years ago or more you would still be quids in. If you bought in the past three years there is a good chance you could get your fingers burnt.

There are 5 new builds (three years old) in my street which have been on the market for more than three months, no takers, mainly because they are
a) overpriced rubbish
b) not worth the money (and never have been)
c) mortgage market has dried up.

These owners bought in 2005 thinking they could make a killing and are now in deep doo-doo because they can't sell their overpriced houses on which they are paying a hefty mortgage.

58

alex patersons English teacher,

17/06/2008 16:31:15
57 here=hear

you agree with your comment in #56.

so do i, hear hear.

59

,

17/06/2008 16:42:18
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60

,

17/06/2008 16:42:48
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61

techpunk,

17/06/2008 16:48:34
again, ccc opens his/ her mouth and lets their belly rumble.

you have been telling us for however long that prices are going to crash massively in edinburgh, and by your own workings, the article supports this?

correct me if i am wrong, but the article refers to someone who is selling his house at the same price he was looking for some months ago, albeit with added incentive.

where does it say the value of his property has decreased? it does not.

do you really think his predicament is unusual, in the terms of selling a 600k property? it is not.
62

Brian Ferrari,

17/06/2008 16:51:41
#65

http://marysholidaysps.com/easter/E056.jpg
63

techpunk,

17/06/2008 16:56:44
#65

I agree

(my quote from an earlier post, re ccc):


"Regarding my opinion as to your mental condition (you did ask!), I believe that it is specifically a "grandios" delusional disorder (a fixed false belief that involves themes of special powers or abilities), which we are dealing with.

The tome of your comment "I am the one who has predicted" is very condusive with the behaviour you have displayed previously in most, if not all of your posts over the weeks (i.e, grandios delusional behaviour). This, along with your aggressive nature, dismissiveness (and all the other indicators which you display, and as listed on the link I posted earlier) suggest a problem to me.

But Hey! I'm no expert!"
64

,

17/06/2008 16:56:48
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65

Dragonlord,

17/06/2008 17:11:38
Why not just torch the place and claim the insurance....Did I just say that out loud?
66

Brian Ferrari,

17/06/2008 17:15:43
#71

Looks like it's a clucking steamer
67

ccc,

17/06/2008 17:20:45
#63.

Yes you are totally correct about the 'timing' of missing the boat. And your 3 years is probably about right. May go a it beyond that though.

Your example of the overpriced new builds is why we are in this mess in the first place. People simply being greedy and thinking they can get money for nothing.

As for myself I have more than enough to buy if I wish.
We are talking 20%+ deposit.
However I just have not been stupid enough to buy in the last couple of years. Because I have bothered to look into the details of what is happening. For some reason that sets me up for derision...

As for the other replies I can sense a certain fear. This is to be expected when these things occur. I do love all the 'hear hear's'.

Just taking a little comfort in the hope that this 'ccc' character is talking nonsense after all. Because you can't bear to think that I may absolutely correct about what is happening....

And all this for simply giving out good advice. Well I never............

:)
68

techpunk,

17/06/2008 17:30:07
what i would really like to know ccc is this:

when you eventually buy (as you have intimated you will), what happens if there is a crash when you are in ownership?

what happens when some jumped up little erse, starts gloating at your position and hopes all misfortunes on you?

you are pathetic. you really, really are.
69

ccc,

17/06/2008 18:04:45
#75

"when you eventually buy (as you have intimated you will), what happens if there is a crash when you are in ownership?

what happens when some jumped up little erse, starts gloating at your position and hopes all misfortunes on you?

you are pathetic. you really, really are"


(1)I wouldn't give a hoot as I would own a house and not care how much it was worth. If it was worth 10k or 100k it would not bother me. You see that has been the problem with this country in the last few years. Greed, pure unadulterated greed. But I am the one being the 'smug'. I don't quite see how.....


(2)Please tell me what 'misfortunes' I am wishing on anyone ? I want house prices to fall to reasonable levels. There will be winners and there will be losers. There will be more winners than losers. If anyone who has simply got into property to make money gets bankrupted then nae luck. Investments can go down as well as up in value. You not heard that before.........

Next....
70

,

17/06/2008 18:21:50
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71

Playground Monitor,

Embra 17/06/2008 18:22:26
All the ad hominem attacks on ccc will not change the fact that the 'Edinburgh is Immune' brigade are the deluded ones.

This 'business psychologist' thinks he's being clever with his £50K cashback, he's not. The market has run out of 'must buy at any cost' chimps. As has been shown already, the monetary benefit to a buyer is far less than £50K off the price.

Even with his free ad in the EN, I suspect this guy will be chasing the market all the way down and may eventually get the £340K his house is worth in 2012 (though I think we'll see 40% reductions well before 2012 - some areas of the market are already there).
72

techpunk,

17/06/2008 18:23:20
right. so you wouldnt give a hoot if, for example, you bought a flat at 100k, and then the interest rates shot through the roof, and you are forced to sell up. you then find the flat value has decreased to 70k. this means you leave with a 30k debt, with nothing to show for it. this wouldn't bother you?

the above example is exactly the type of misfortune you have been pedalling....no...hoping onus homeowners, isn't it?

why you want to own a property is beyond me. it honestly is.
73

sheeplecull,

edinburgh 17/06/2008 18:24:48
No.63. What makes you think that people who bought their house five or ten years ago will be able to sell at profit? The ESPC is full to bursting point with property that won`t sell. The removal of cheap credit means most people can pay for housing based only on what they themselves actually earn. This fact alone means for me that we are returning to around 1997 prices. Add in a recession, and the massive amount of personal debt people carry, for which there is no historical precedent, then I think we are in for a very big correction in prices. This gentleman has as much chance of selling his house at his asking price as I have of passing SAS selection.
74

ccc,

17/06/2008 18:31:14
#80.

If I buy a place I will buy it at the right time and for the right money.

-I have looked into long term historic interest rates. -I have looked into long term house prices.
-I have looked into long term trends.
-I have looked into long term cycles.

I wouldn't dare even THINK about signing on the dotted line for a MASSIVE loan unless I had done all the above.

Most in this country have gone out and got a MASSIVE loan that they can barely afford and not even bothered to look into what MAY happen in the future. They have not even bothered to think about how they would cope if prices went down or interest rates went up, or both....

Why should I feel sorry for people who have made these stupid decisions and are not willing to deal with the consequences ?

Want me to bail them out by paying for an overprices house do you ? No thanks. Think I will just be rewarded for my diligence and forward thinking.

And your problem with this is................
75

sheeplecull,

edinburgh 17/06/2008 18:38:53
Remember, you are only a homeowner if you really own your home. Having a big silly mortgage that you cannot afford doesn`t count, this just means that the bank owns the house and the bank owns you. Try missing three payments and see if there is much difference from renting
76

Playground Monitor,

17/06/2008 18:39:14
#80

If I am acquiring my largest and most illiquid asset, I hope I'd have the sense to research the market and not buy at the top of a bubble. I'd also do a stress analysis to ensure that I can continue to afford it should interest rates rise.

For those who didn't do that, and by their actions fed the bubble, thus delaying my entry into the housing market, hell mend them!

I can count and therefore I look forward to buying sometime in the next 2-4 years. My rent is looking far less like 'dead money' than your (hypothetical?) £30K debt with nothing to show for it.
77

techpunk,

17/06/2008 18:57:19
what do you plan on doing? selling your home every 18 years, just before the downwards point of the "cycle"?. you do believe that for some reason: that its every 18 years we have a property crash. is this a "hippy" thing or something? drugs could explain a lot to me.

or maybe you are a druid or something, which would make you believe you to be the only person in the world unsusceptable to market fluctuations?

you are a truly astounding individual. but i like it!

78

techpunk,

17/06/2008 19:02:34
#84

yes, hypothetical, but i was actually being kind. peas-for-brains thinks we are looking at a crash here of something like 40-50%.

79

Fud,

Brighton 17/06/2008 19:05:24
Sorry nothing to do with this article ( desperate any photos of greenwside row 0 have a hangkering to see where i lived )call me centamental )
80

,

17/06/2008 19:06:49
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81

Proximo,

17/06/2008 19:11:31
ccc@ #48

"I have been warning people on another forum I visit of this for over 18 months. I have telling all this to friends and fanily for over 2 years"

Do your friends and fanily(?!) not get a bit fed up of you going on about it for over 2 years? ;-)
82

Adso,

17/06/2008 19:28:53
£600k for a place on Qferry Rd - good luck bro.

U have had it for 16 yrs so where did the £600k come from? Anyhoo - this dude is old enouff to remember the 90s - should know better!!! Estate agents will tell u that u can live on mana from heaven - does not mean u can!
83

Angry Rob,

Edinburgh 17/06/2008 19:29:55
Comical story! This guy can't be getting good advice from the supposed experts when the lenders have already said that these sort of incentives will no longer be allowed.

"their move has been held up by the credit crunch draining the confidence of buyers and lenders"

Wrong! Their move has been held up because the market value of his house is (far) lower than he believes.
84

Adso,

17/06/2008 19:37:07
£600k for a place on Qferry Rd - good luck bro.

U have had it for 16 yrs so where did the £600k come from? Anyhoo - this dude is old enouff to remember the 90s - should know better!!! Estate agents will tell u that u can live on mana from heaven - does not mean u can!
85

TR20,

Edinburgh 17/06/2008 19:47:16
ccc is in the right 100 times over; the criticisms against his posts are pathetically weak. Greed and fear have been driving the market for so long and it's a shocking disgrace that housing wasn't included in inflation figures.

Edinburgh is going to fall big-time and only those shrewd enough not to have been drawn into this massive scam will be prepared to reap the rewards: a house to live in at an affordable price, not some money-making scheme.

People really need to wake up and smell the coffee, the denial is incredible, and the intellect lacking in a very worrying way. Anybody that is in support of how the market has been going over the last decade is wholly irresponsible, their behaviour worse than that of a spoilt child.

And it's not just the housing market; the U.K. is in such a state right now, it defies belief. You lot are in for a very big shock; fortunately, it seems several posters will be well set up for this, which will be some justice for those who are prepared to open their eyes to what is really going on.
86

,

17/06/2008 19:51:32
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
87

ccc,

17/06/2008 19:52:49
#85

What are you talking about ?

I am simply saying buy a house when you can afford to - don't buy one when you cannot afford to.

And preferably not at the peak of the very biggest housing bubble this country has ever seen. Then when it goes up in value don't sit in the pub telling everyone how great that is and how rich you 'think' you are...

If you follow this simple plan when things like a housing crash come long you can simply IGNORE them as it won't affect you. Because you will be in the proud possession of a 'HOME' not an 'INVESTMENT'.

You getting this very simple logic yet....
88

,

17/06/2008 19:53:11
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
89

ccc,

17/06/2008 19:57:38
#94

You are funny. I will give you that.

"Can you see into the future?"

Yes. What goes up must come down. Bust will follow boom. Quite simple really.

"I'm an analyst by trade, and us analysts can't predict what my market will do based on a cr*ppy wee historical trend. I sincerely doubt you can with you 'trend data'"

Jeezo. A 'wee historical trend'. What? The one that shows house prices in the UK at their most un-affordable EVER. A well educated 8 year old child could predict correctly what will happen next. I hope your 'analyst' profession has nothing to do with finances. If it does you are in big trouble.
90

geoffthechef,

chester 17/06/2008 20:09:28
YOU WILL NOR BELIEVE HOW QUICK THINGS HAVE CHANGED ROUND HERE THREE MONTHS AGO WE HAD A MARKET..NOW IN EVERY STREET THERE ARE BOARDS HUNDREDS OF THEM WITH FOR SALE SIGNS ON AND MY ESTATE AGENT TELLS ME HE HAS SOLD 3 HOUSES IN TWO MONTHS.IT CHANGES THAT QUICK AND IF YOU DONT THINK IT WILL HAPPEN UP THERE THINK AGAIN AS CHESTER HAS BEEN BOOMING FOR YEARS..NOT NOW THE WHOLE MOOD HAS CHANGED AND YOU NOTICE IT EVERYWHERE..THE SHOPS ARE EMPTY THE ROADS ARE EMPTY AND THE PUBS ARE CLOSING DOWN THIS HAS HAPPENED VERY VERY QUICKLY.....SO DO NOT BELIEVE YOU ARE IMMUNE TO IT ALL UP THERE..THIS CRASH IS ABSOLUTELY HAPPENING TEN TIMES FASTER THAN THE LAST ONE.....PROTECT YOURSELF.....DEBT IS ENSLAVING
91

ccc,

17/06/2008 20:22:20
#98.

Barred for what exactly ? Pointing out the simple truth that some people really don't want to hear....

#99.

Cheers for the view from elsewhere. There are still many people in Scotland who think 'It will be different here'.

You know the crazy thing ? I am the one who is called delusional.

Go figure...
92

GeorgeCowieOrWalterKidd?,

17/06/2008 20:38:55
I'm going to support ccc on this. The market was pushed up by speculators, bank's lax lending practices and people who believed the "get in now, or miss the boat" hyperbole. I only have some sympathy for the last group as they are likely to be first time buyers who may have received poor advice.

I have no sympathy for RE speculators who are essentially gamblers. Yes, property in the long term (at least 10 years) is a good investment if you can afford the payments or cover them with rental income. Flipping and buying in a bubble is gambling pure and simple as the bubble can burst at any time.

Artificially inflated housing prices do no-one any good except, for a time, the already rich who ARE greedy, contrary to some of the comments on here. If people are paying 60, 70% of their income on housing, the economy as a whole suffers - more stressed people around (higher healthcare costs), lower birth rate (either people stuck in tiny flats or simply can't afford bairns) and less money going into the local shops, restaurants, etc.

We need a correction and I join ccc in feeling smug that I have rented and saved and am ready with a deposit to get a suitable place I can grow into for a reasonable price if I so choose.
93

techpunk,

17/06/2008 20:46:34
as far as i remember things, edinburgh held out pretty well in the 90s crash. i think prices stagnated for a period of a few years and there wasn't much movement, but thats about it.....could be wrong though, but that is how it was for my own transactions.

we are now 15 years down the line, and edinburgh has so much more going for it. i'm confident we will hold out again. people will continue to want to buy in to edinburgh is my feeling.

what nobody has commented on is the possibility that what we are seeing here is actually a transition towards increased rental market up take, and rented property becoming the norm, as we see in many of the european markets.

ownership may become exclusive to those who are already within the ownership market, or those wealthy enough to enter it.

could happen.
94

ccc,

17/06/2008 20:50:30
#101

"I only have some sympathy for the last group as they are likely to be first time buyers who may have received poor advice"

I will agree with you on that. These are the only group I have a smidgen of sympathy with. I do still think they should have been sensible and looked into the details before signing up for a massive loan.

However it is easy to be sucked in by poor advice. Some will end up being shafted for simply trusting close friends and family. That is just one of the many sad aspects of this decade long 'boom'.

A 'boom' that I think will be looked upon through history as one of the most damaging periods for our country.
95

GeorgeCowieOrWalterKidd?,

17/06/2008 20:52:44
#102 I agree Edinburgh is one place where property will hold it's value to a certain extent, simply because it is one of the nicest places in the country to live and there are will always be lot of rich people in England in particular who buy places here when they send Nigel and Cynthia to Edin Uni. However, that doesn't mean it will remain effectively unnaffordable to the regular people who live and work here, which it is now.

Simply put, f you bought a place to live for the long-term, it doesn't matter what the markets do. If you bought outwith your means during the bubble you face negative equity and may struggle to upgrade to a larger place. Likewise, if you overstretched your finances to buy, you face some money worries, especially if you lose your job or go from a two-income family to a one-income family.

If you stick to spending no more than 3 times your household income on a mortgage, live within your means and stick some away for a rainy day you'll always be safe, barring unforseen catastrophes. It's not rocket science.
96

Adso,

17/06/2008 20:54:40
Gordon Brown is entirely responsibloe fo the recsession that i swinging it's way upon us.
97

ccc,

17/06/2008 20:58:16
#102.

A few fair points there. I think the difference is back in 1990ish Edinburgh was still affordable. After a little hard work and saving the average person could afford the average house. Today that is not the case.

Affordability will always be the key.

As for renting you will find that in many countries, including most of North America, people CHOOSE to rent. They are not forced into it because they cannot afford to buy. They prefer to rent.

In this country people have been FORCED to rent. Very different proposition.

"ownership may become exclusive to those who are already within the ownership market, or those wealthy enough to enter it.

could happen"

As for your comment above it almost sounds like you would WANT this situation to come about. Would you really ?
98

GeorgeCowieOrWalterKidd?,

17/06/2008 21:03:49
#106 I agree with most of what you say, but not that North Americans prefer to rent. In cities like New York, yes as it's incredibly expensive to buy. IN general, I think the American Dream of home ownership still lives on - as can be seen by the people who took on totally unaffordable purchases and the havoc the fall in house prices is creating there just now. Every country has different attitudes housing though - in Italy for example, people live at home much longer. In China and India, families often stick together under the same roof. Edinburgh has a large need for rental housing for students, which can reduce the housing available to residents.
99

techpunk,

17/06/2008 21:11:32
#106

"As for your comment above it almost sounds like you would WANT this situation to come about. Would you really ?"

all i am saying is it could well happen.

pub talk in 10 years time might not be about how much capital your freehold is earning you, but what a steal you got on the rent for that gorgeous cottage in your dream village, which you may well have not afforded to buy (and more importantly) enjoy before.
100

ccc,

17/06/2008 21:13:43
#107.

Yes you may be right about the US. I have knowledge of a few areas but its a big place !!

In the UK though it is almost like a religion with home ownership.

I would love to own my own place but I am not prepared to get absolutely robbed for the privilege.

Once buying a place makes financial sense I will consider it. Really not difficult to understand if you put just a little bit of research in.
101

ccc,

17/06/2008 21:16:45
#108.

Of course anything can happen. I just don't see why basic home ownership will, in the near future, become the preserve of only the amazingly wealthy.

It may happen. I hope not though. I would to live in a country where those that work hard and save a bit of money can afford to buy a semi decent home. Nothing more.

Not much to ask for. :)

102

GeorgeCowieOrWalterKidd?,

17/06/2008 21:18:47
#108 Rents tend to follow housing prices up or down. In your scenario of constantly high housing prices, people need to rent them out for more but unless wages rise that won't be possible. As ccc said, it's all about :affordability".

Many people have bought in the bubble with a view to renting out and selling after a few years. They're in for a big shock. Watch for rents to fall, partly because the best renters - ie the ones who have good jobs and have been saving - will now look to buy as renting becomes less of a smart financial move.

People who bought to rent temporarily will have to sell = more houses on the market, lower prices. It's all a snowball effect.
103

The baldman,

eastbourne 17/06/2008 21:30:16
How is it valued corectly? It is only worth what someone will pay for it. Take a realistic 20 to 30% off an dit might sell.
104

Playground Monitor,

17/06/2008 21:36:53
#111

Rents are actually primarily determined by wages affordability). Edinburgh is awash with flats to let and rents are falling. Property prices are determined by wages plus availability and price of credit.

As lenders' LTV ratios drop and people come off introductory rates and find their equity has decreased, a fair bit more property will come on to the Edinburgh market. Later entry Buy to Letters will also be jumping the sinking ship (a number of the new flats in Leith / Granton are already with the auctioneers at 50% of what the BTL speculators were paying).
105

techpunk,

17/06/2008 21:39:07
#112

we should have a wee "sweep" here. no doubt mr young will be reading this blog with interest and may be good enough to confirm the sale price?

having seen the particulars, i am pitching in at 482k.
106

GeorgeCowieOrWalterKidd?,

17/06/2008 21:42:02
True, but rent is also determined by what needs to cover the mortgage, meaning if the buy-to-letters who thought someone else would pay for their retirement can't get what they need, they'll sell as you say.

Another good indication of the market falling is the fact that this house is at a fixed price, and check the fixed price listing to see the numbers rise as people go for quick sales.
107

Playground Monitor,

17/06/2008 21:50:22
#114

If he's determined to chase the market right down for the full crash, then as average property tends to revert to 3.5 to 4 times average wages (24K here if I remember rightly) and his property starts at 3 x average pre-crash Edinburgh property price:

4 x 24K x 3 = £288K

Not having seen the particulars, if it's a super-duper house and attracts a premium, I'll plump for £340K.
108

Playground Monitor,

17/06/2008 21:58:01
#115

As you say, only if they can find a tenant! With BTL flats at Granton selling for 50% of what the speculators paid, I think we can safely say they failed to attract tenants prepared to cover their ludicrous mortgages!

On your second point: 60% of the 3529 Edinburgh City properties on ESPC yesterday were at fixed prices. I think that counts as an indicator of a falling market.
109

googler,

17/06/2008 23:22:58
"David Marshall of the Edinburgh Solicitors Property Centre, said: "Maybe we are starting to see more incentives being offered.

"It is more unusual with second-hand properties, but it is a good way of making your home stand out."
"

IWhere does the 'Maybe' of this statement come from, when the five ESPC member firms who form the ELPG have just launched their own 'kickstart' scheme with a 3% cashback incentive.........? Doesn't he know about what those who claim to transact 25% of the ESPC's business are up to...?
110

Julian.,

edinburgh 18/06/2008 00:33:10
#113 Playground monitor,

Where is your evidence that rents are falling in Edinburgh. All the evidence I see points to rents rising.

Personally, if I were a prospective first time buyer there's no chance I would buy in the current market. If you buy now, you will be paying 3 times in mortgage payments what you would have paid in rent for the same property. And to dig the boot in the value of your house will probably not rise in the next 2 years. If others are thinking the same way then rents will go up.
111

ccc,

18/06/2008 09:25:06
#119.

Have you not noticed how many people who were planning to sell are now considering renting it out instead ?

They are seeing these stories of 'rents going up' and are thinking why don't I just do that instead. Only problem is the more people that do this, the more rental properties are available.....

You get the jist. Rents are constrained by people's ability to pay. Landlords can raise rents if they wish. However a large number of people will be moving back home ot into spare rooms with pals in the near future I imagine. The costs of most things are rising. Just where will they find the extra 10% that their landlord 'demands' ?

Also you know all those Polish in the City ? Around 20,000 at the last count. They will soon be heading home. Their currency has risen by 15% against the pound in the last year. Also the average wage in Poland ahs risen by 15% in the last year. So I imagine for a lot of them the whole point of coming over here has just got far less attractive.

And nearly all of them rent in shared flats. Just think if only 10% of them head home. 2000 people less looking to rent. At a guess maybe covering 500 flats...

Rents may rise a little. But there is little danger they will rise a lot.

PS. Look out for the above analysis appearing in a paper in about 6 months. I should charge for all this. :)
112

TR20,

Edinburgh 18/06/2008 09:50:17
#102, I have to strongly disagree.
I was deluded just last Christmas when I thought I could buy. My income is pretty solid and yet I could not afford a decent place anywhere, and that was even on a FTB scheme where the government would pay for 40% of the mortgage. If FTBs can't get on the ladder, there's an affordability crisis, and all people on that ladder will start to fall off; you need people coming on to push the others up.

#101: Good points about spending 60-70% on the mortgage worsening the economy. What sort of life is that? I refuse to ever spend more than 1/3 of my income on a mortgage.

#109: Exactly, it has turned into some sort of housing cult, and I wont be financed up to the eyeballs to take part in it. People think they're well-off if they are PAYING UP FOR A home. But I prefer my situation, almost debt-free and with savings in the bank. I have some friends who have recently bought, one lot have a kid on the way. They've already lost £20k on the value of their property and they will pay for it for the rest of their lives. Whatever you do, don't buy now if you don't have to.

#120: Good points about the Polish rates going up, I know a few who do factory work and are due to move back within the next 3 months. The U.K seems to be getting shafted left, right and centre, and the people sit back and take it.

Bring back 3-4x income values and 10% deposit.
113

Bob 2,

18/06/2008 12:44:25
and a Free advert into Days Metro...
......Priceless advertising
114

Bob 2,

18/06/2008 12:47:12
the whole housing market is like a stack of cards, if theres nothing at the bottom for the low paid then the whole housing market will probably crash.

The fact that we have all been sucked into this, At the end of the day we have all caused the problem with GREED.
115

Busymale,

18/06/2008 13:06:45
This man is motivated by sheer greed, and his head is back in the days when property was booming. For a psychologist his brain seems a bit stuck!

Drop the price ya donkey!
116

GeorgeCowieOrWalterKidd?,

18/06/2008 19:51:03
A major omission from this story is the original purchase price. Fact is, this seller will make a considerable profit either way. He's just probably kicking himself for not selling this time last year at the peak and trying to maximise his return, which he's perfectly entitled to do. But someone else needs to sell to finance this purchase and that's harder to do now, which is how the whole property ladder collapses in this situation as #126 says.

This shows just how risky playing the RE market can be when an obviously educated person in business and psychology can't time it right, although it could equally be the case he didn't want to sell last year. Hopefully he'll get it sold.
117

Julian.,

edinburgh 18/06/2008 22:23:18
ccc # 120,

Some good points. But where is your evidence that lots more people are renting out rather than selling? The fact is that rents have gone up substantially in the last 3 years. How much they will go up in the future is a matter of debate.

But one major factor is that there are virtually no first time buyers entering the property market at the moment. And there are no buyers who can't manage a 10% deposit, which amounts to around £20k in Edinburgh. Yes, some people will continue to live at home. But, there will be a large number of people who will refuse to do this and will take the renting option instead. In addition, there will be a number of homeowners who have to move because of their circumstances. A large number of them will choose to rent instead of buy.
118

ccc,

18/06/2008 23:11:26
"The fact is that rents have gone up substantially in the last 3 years."

Where do you get this from. No-one I know has had any increase even close to the rate of inflation in the last 3 years. The only person who thinks rents have risen substantially is David Alexander. Nuff said.

I think rents will fall along with house prices. Now that would be a shocker. You just watch what thousands of Polish leaving to go back home does to the rental market.:)

 

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