THE sun may be high in the sky with forecasters predicting fine weather for the remainder of the week, which should help with haymaking.
However, the farming industry risks being put to the sword this week in Geneva as representatives from the leading global powers attempt to reach a resolution to the Doha round of discussions initiated by the World Trade Organisation (WTO).
Th
ese talks have been hovering on the agricultural horizon since 2001: the initial objective was to liberate international trade and free the world, including agriculture, from import tariffs and export subsidies.
Over the past seven years, there has been a huge change in the food-supply situation.
There are no longer any mountains of beef or dairy products in Europe, while world grain stocks are close to the lowest level for almost 40 years, notwithstanding projections of a record wheat harvest in 2008. Supplies of food, just like oil, would appear to be precariously balanced.
Tomorrow looks set to be the big day in Geneva when Peter Mandelson, the European Union's trade commissioner, will make his final pitch to phase out support. The impact on UK agriculture would be immense, as Jim Begg, the director-general of UK Dairy – an all-embracing organisation covering producers and processors – made clear.
In relation to cheese, Begg said: "Quota plans have been mooted and these would inevitably result in tens of thousands of tonnes of imported, non-EU cheddar hitting the UK market with the threat of major disruption and the loss of many jobs. The sector's growing confidence could be undermined by a move to boost cheaper imports."
France holds the EU presidency and may yet be the key to any decisions in Geneva. French governments have over the years been highly sensitive to the interests of farmers.
Nicolas Sarkozy, the French president, was in Dublin yesterday and it is a certainty that the new Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, laid it on the line as to what would happen to Irish farming if Mandelson has his way and phases out all support for farming.
Meanwhile, the Irish Farmers' Association, which has close links with NFU Scotland, recently placed a full-page advertisement in the press.
The essentials are that WTO cuts would result in a loss of 4 billion (£3.2bn) to the Irish economy and that 50,000 farmers could be put out of business with an equal number of job loses in the food processing sectors. The IFA claims also that the ex-farm prices for beef would plunge to little better than 160p per kilo – current values are about 250p – while up to one million beef cows would be slaughtered on economic grounds.
No similar analysis has been conducted in Scotland, but there is little doubt that a huge inflow of cheap imports of beef, lamb and dairy products would have a devastating impact on a wide range of rural and associated industries.
Pronouncements from the UK government on the WTO deliberations have been noticeably muted in recent weeks. Prime Minister Gordon Brown has never been perceived as being farmer-friendly – at least until a few weeks ago when he did comment that food security required more attention.
The core driver of the Doha round was to assist developing nations make their mark on international trade. But there is a growing consensus that removing agricultural support will only help the major exporters – the US, Canada, Brazil, Argentina, Australia and New Zealand – to increase market penetration.
However, the odds are that there will be little more than a fudge in Geneva this week. In addition, the candidates for the presidency of the US have given clear indications that they are unwilling to sacrifice the farm vote on the altar of free trade.
The full article contains 634 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
