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The worst recession in 50 years - latest figures reveal further economic woe

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Published Date: 23 October 2009
THE UK economy continued to shrink in the third quarter of 2009 - ending hopes of an end to the recession.
The shock 0.4% fall between July and September takes the total loss of output since the recession began last year to 5.9%, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) said.

Experts predicted a 0.2% advance for the economy, but today's figures leave t
he UK in the grip of the longest period of continuous decline since ONS records began in 1955.

The estimates mean the depth of the current slump is nearing the 6% decline seen between 1979 and 1981.




Bill Jamieson: Shock fall counfounds the experts




The persistent decline of the ailing economy comes despite interest rates at a record low 0.5% since March, economic stimulus moves from the Government and an unprecedented £175 billion boost to the money supply through quantitative easing.

Although figures such as Chancellor Alistair Darling and Bank of England governor Mervyn King expect some modest growth by the end of this year, pressure on the economy will intensify in 2010 as stimulus measures such as the temporary VAT cut and the "cash-for-bangers" scrappage scheme come to an end. Unemployment is also steadily rising towards three million.

Today's figures showed the pressure on hard-hit consumers during the period with output from distribution, hotels and restaurants down by 1%.

Overall service output, which represents almost three-quarters of the UK economy, was expected to register growth but instead disappointed with a 0.2% decline over the quarter.

The construction sector also remained in the doldrums, falling 1.1% during the period. The beleaguered industry has now contracted by a mammoth 14.7% since the beginning of 2008.

Industrial production output, meanwhile, shrank by 0.7% and is down by 13.7% since the recession began.

Today's figures have been compiled with around 40% of the required data and could be subject to changes in the next two months when more information has been gathered.

The pound fell by almost 1% against the dollar and euro following today's weaker-than-expected Q3 performance. The FTSE 100 Index clung to earlier gains to stand 1% higher.

Vicky Redwood, an economist at Capital Economics, said a further extension to the Bank of England's quantitative easing programme looked even more likely at its meeting next month.

She added: "The fact that the economy is still contracting despite the huge amount of policy stimulus supports our view that the recovery will be a long, slow process.
"The economy now looks unlikely to grow by more than 1% at best next year.
Similarly, with a huge amount of slack still building, we continue to think that deflation is a key risk."



Page 1 of 1

 
1

Jo'Burg Jock,

South Africa 23/10/2009 11:06:18

There have been a growing number of people who say that Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling have no idea what the are doing.

There are of course those who say that Brown and Darling NEVER had any idea about what they have ever done.

The heading of this article states:-

"Hopes of end to recession are dashed as economy shrinks"

Bad publicity like this obviously gives substance to those type of objective conclusions.

2

Jo'Burg Jock,

South Africa 23/10/2009 11:13:21

Consider the other Scotsman heading :-

"Recession 'to end today as UK officially shows first green shoots'"
_______________________________________________________

This is the journal which openly supports these Muppets in Downing Sreet.

Says it all really.

3

Gordieboy,

Musselburgh 23/10/2009 11:15:38
Britain is absolutely brilliant. Long live the Union.
4

James.com,

23/10/2009 11:24:29
Boom and Bust said that we "were uniquely placed " to weather this! Does he have a clue what is going on?
5

AJ Fife,

23/10/2009 13:02:24
Didn't France and Germany come out of recession months ago?

What happened to the 'Great Oaf's' assertion that the UK was best placed to come out of recession earlier than anybody else?
6

,

23/10/2009 13:03:57
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
7

Temple,

Italy 23/10/2009 13:13:23
as a foreigner observer somebody can tell me what kind a party is the Lib Dem. ? to me it look like if is no meat or no fish ( i don't know how you say over there ) i mean , tasteless , i'm wrong ?
8

A Friend of Fernando Poo,

23/10/2009 13:24:39
The quick guide to fiscal policy:

Monetarists: Believe that you can borrow your way out of debt.

Keynesians: Believe that the government can borrow your way out of debt.

Austrians: Think you're in too much debt and it's time to quit borrowing and start saving.

No prizes for guessing which one Brown and Darling fell for.
9

BIG EYE,

Paisley 23/10/2009 13:31:14
Hold on were we not told the UK was "best placed" to come out of the recession?

What happened?

Has the Union stopped working?

Does the PM have a clue about just how stupid he appears yet again?

When is the election?
10

,

23/10/2009 13:39:19
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
11

Alastair the First,

23/10/2009 13:45:00
Cyclops Brown, how are you going to lie your way out of this one?
12

butamitt,

Glasgow 23/10/2009 13:47:18
8
A Friend of Fernando Poo

Actually you're wrong, keynseians believe you spend your way our of a recession (on capital projects that have long term benefits).

Unfortunately we can't do this because the first part of the Keynseian equation is that in the good times you put money aside so that you can do this in the bad times.

Our great chancellor/PM not only spent everything he racked up massive debt too (in the Good times!!) and his solution now is to build up even bigger debt.

To be fair to him the Tories went along with all of that too - only Vincent Cable in the LIb Dems had a clue.

13

Linda,

Edinburgh 23/10/2009 13:55:04
Soon Iceland, Ireland and Norway will have surpluses or healthier deficits than the UK.
Every single one of these countries will have a balance of trade surplus while the UK will continue with $50 billion-plus (£30.6 billion) deficits.
So much for the attacks on these countries by the London parties. Of course they were affected by the recession and the banking crisis (which was largely caused by the lax financial regulations by the US and UK governments) but these countries have shown the flexibility to turn things around.
And so can Scotland – if its government has the right tools so that we can be part of the Arc of Recovery, rather than part of the long term Bankrupt Britain.
The “scaremongering” of the Unionist parties was exposed by the latest statistics for the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
While the UK will have a £34 billion deficit next year, equivalent to 2.4 per cent of GDP, Mr Hosie said Ireland will have a surplus of £1.3 billion, Finland £600 million, and Norway £51.5 billion.
Even “much-maligned” Iceland will have a deficit of 1.1 per cent of GDP, less than half the UK figure.
14

Liz,

Edinburgh 23/10/2009 14:08:02
#10
I think you will find that it was the economic policies of a Scotsman that are largely responsible for the dire state the UK economy is in.
Remember all Brown's bragging about unprecedented economic growth and the end of boom and bust? Our economy was built around a principle of borrowing money (on an individual and Government level) to fuel growth which is hardly a long term strategy.
15

Nevsky;,

St Petersburg 23/10/2009 14:27:55
Westminster...the dying elephant! Time to have Scotland working for Scotland...not tagged onto a social and economic failure.
16

Sedov,

23/10/2009 14:27:57
The political parties are all the same - not one party including the SNP can solve the problems of economic recession for real and for good.

WE need a total and fundemental rethink on the way we live and distribute our wealth - a revolution.

we need to organise our society on need not profit - We have the science and the people to do this but not the will. We are scared to change.

And the NATS suporters -do not think that by declaring Scotland Independent this is a magic wand to success- your party wants the to remain within the status quo and have no radical policies that will make any real difference, so stop kidding yourself - your as bad as Labour.

17

The Tin Man,

23/10/2009 14:57:40
Bizarre gloating from the separatists here. Scotland will never be economically independent from the UK. When the UK does badly, Scotland does badly, whatever the constitutional arrangements are.
18

The Tin Man,

23/10/2009 15:16:33


"Scoytland will never be economically independent from the UK and will never be economicallu independenct from France and Japan and China and Nigeria."

Indeed, but unlike French Polynesia, the UK is Scotland's principle market, by far, and Scotland's principle supplier, by far.

'Independence' wouldn't make the slightest bit of difference to that fact. It is something that is determined by businesses, not governments.

There is quite a valid argument for the desirability of having a say in the economic management of a state that we are economically dependent on.
19

Jo'Burg Jock,

South Africa 23/10/2009 15:18:47
The headline States:-

"The worst recession in 50 years - latest figures reveal further economic woe"
______________________________________________________

Tin Pan supports the Unionists who have achieved this and he calls others "bizarre"

Now THAT is bizarre.

20

The Tin Man,

23/10/2009 15:22:07
#25

Rivet!

Supermarket!

Gantry-Crane!

Now THAT is bizarre.
21

Jo'Burg Jock,

South Africa 23/10/2009 15:23:45
Tin Man,23/10/2009 14:57:40

"Scotland will never be economically independent from the UK."
______________________________________________________

We will be economically Independent after the referendum.

THAT IS THE WHOLE POINT OF IT.

22

Jo'Burg Jock,

South Africa 23/10/2009 15:26:00
The Tin Man,23/10/2009 15:22:07
____________________________________________

Aye that as well.

23

The Tin Man,

23/10/2009 15:27:18
#27 Jo'Burg Jock, South Africa 23/10/2009 15:23:45

No, you don't understand. Scotland principally sells things to the rest of the UK, and principally buys things from the UK. It is the basis of the Scottish economy.

I like your sexy capital letters, though ;-)
24

Jo'Burg Jock,

South Africa 23/10/2009 15:28:03
The Tin Man,23/10/2009 14:57:40

Says:-
"When the UK does badly, Scotland does badly,"
_____________________________________________________

Won't be the case when we secede.

25

Jo'Burg Jock,

South Africa 23/10/2009 15:33:00
The Tin Man,23/10/2009 15:27:18

Says:-
"Scotland principally sells things to the rest of the UK, and principally buys things from the UK."
______________________________________________________

Plent of countries throughout the world have "Principal" trading partners this does not dictate a common economic performance.

And keep your hands off my capitals.

26

Jo'Burg Jock,

South Africa 23/10/2009 15:34:24


Plenty of countries throughout the world have "Principal" trading partners this does not dictate a common economic performance.
27

The Tin Man,

23/10/2009 15:34:30
#30

Coming from a man who claims to have emigrated to a country run by ex-cons, because of the 1979 devolution polling rules, I will take your comments with a large pinch of salt.

Pith helmet.

Asparagus.
28

Jo'Burg Jock,

South Africa 23/10/2009 15:40:00
The Tin Man,23/10/2009 15:34:30

I went into a shop last week in Durban and asked for a Pith Helmet.

The assistant said "We only thell Dethent headgear".



29

Jo'Burg Jock,

South Africa 23/10/2009 16:04:05
Aye. The old ones are the best.

That's why I use them.

30

Alan B,

23/10/2009 16:25:22
#Sedov

There is a bizzareness to your argument.

You continually tell us to support labour. And then we labour make a complete mess of the economy you have the cheek to say they would all be as economically as stupid as labour and we should still back the party that has wrecked the economy.

More bizzare as you are continually advocating we back a party whose policies you do not even believe in.
31

Alan B,

23/10/2009 16:30:02
#The Tin Man

The point about economic independence is you have the economic tools at your disposal to make a difference. Giving away that power is stupid. It is doubly stupid given that we have tried the uk and tried giving away that power and it has been such an economic failure.

The eu approach is much better. Has rules of a single market. Has a common currency on offer which would be far better for the scottish economy than sterling. And also allows the free movement of people.

But it does allow countries to have economic powers over managing the economy like fiscal policy. The uk has failed scotland economically.

We need either to move to independence or have the economic powers devolved. And in uk terms we need a government who would deal with the north south divide. But as we know it will not happen.
32

Ugly George,

23/10/2009 16:31:20
13 Linda
You have used John Swinney's and Stewart Hosie's selective statistics. The trade deficits are a different matter from fiscal deficits which are the aspects that are causing problems in economies.

To put this into perspective, the EU has predicted that Ireland will have a fiscal deficit of 15.6% of GDP in 2010.

A trade surplus is not necessarily a sign of a healthy economy nor is a trade deficit necessarily a sign of a sick one. Many countries have maintained trade deficits for years with no harm to the economy while many with trade surpluses (e.g. Japan) have had a stagnant econmy. Such deficits are often balanced by inflows/outflows of capital/investment etc.

However fiscal deficits are another matter. These have to be financed by borrowing which has to be paid back eventually.
33

Jo'Burg Jock,

Soth Africa 23/10/2009 16:32:45
Sedov,23/10/2009 14:27:57

Says:-

"we need to organise our society on need not profit"
______________________________________________________

Great idea! So when do we start?

Because I need more than anybody else.

34

Ugly George,

Edinburgh 23/10/2009 16:35:40
37 Alan B
"Has a common currency on offer which would be far better for the scottish economy than sterling."

We have discussed this topic in the past and you have stated that you favour the euro as it has lower interest rates. However sterling interest rates are now lower than euro rates so I don't know if your argument still holds.
35

Gorgie Anthony,

23/10/2009 16:42:07
Thank God that Gogs and Darling have everything under control. These guys are underrated.

Gogs saved the world and Darling has great comedy eyebrows that keep the nations spirits up. God bless them.
36

Ugly George,

23/10/2009 16:42:21
40 Alan B
PS
I know you have sed Eddie George's comments about unemployment in the North being necessary to quell inflationary pressures but this will always be a feature of any currency unit.

Consider that soon the euro will be the currency of almost 400 million people throughout a host of countries. The ECB will have to look at overall inflationary pressures etc. when deciding interest rates. It is difficult to see how the economy of just 5 million people on the geographical fringe of Europe would feature prominently in their calculations.
37

Alan B,

23/10/2009 17:10:21
#Ugly George

"It is difficult to see how the economy of just 5 million people on the geographical fringe of Europe would feature prominently in their calculations"

It will not.

My argument is not that scotland will have any effect on the ECB policy. But that over the past 30yrs DM or euro interest rates have been lower than sterlings.

As such over long period of time this has been the case.

The other issue issue is interest rates in the uk have been too high for the scottish economy over a prolonged period. This was reduced by brown but only because he was running an unduely lax monetary policy (although i would have rather quanitive monetary controls that just using the cost of money). But as you pointed out Eddie Georges comments aobut unemployment in the north being a price worth paying to control inflation in the south were made as part of his tenour as head of BOE under brown.

So if sterling interest rates have over a long period of time been too high for the scottish economy (made worse by stupid fiscal policies like miras which subsidised credit only to use interest rates to control the growth of the money supply), and if euro rates tend in the long run to be lower then it suggest the euro would be better for our economy.

Off course a separate scottish currency would have the most appropriate monetary policy (and may be the best option) but does bring with it the issues round currency fluxations with both sterling zone and euro zone.

The secondary advantage of being in the euro zone is gives us a competitive advantage when trying to gain inward investment as companies gain access to the single european market.

As i said i think the best thing for scotland would be if england were to join the euro too. But that is unlikely to happen for political reasons. And there is also a reason interest rates are higher in the uk and that is the overheating southern economy. So could be economically damaging to the south without economic reform
38

morris,

edinburgh 23/10/2009 17:11:52
41 Indeed they do

See this

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKMGZLr8Kec
39

ppink,

23/10/2009 17:16:13
The pound has slipped to 1.08, latest national debt is 710 billion and rising, everybody in the UK owes 28K. there are metaphorical helicopters being warmed up in the financial palaces of the United Kingdom while metaphorial fiddles are being played to the rosy glow of metaphorical fires.

This is not serious - it is catastrophic.

This is going to make Jarrow look like a Sunday school picnic.

Thank you Gordon Brown and Labour.





40

Alan B,

23/10/2009 17:25:58
#Ugly George

.... to allow it to deal better with a lower interest rate.

You are correct that sterling interest rate is currently low. The lowest i ever remember at 0.5%. But i think that is temporary due to the sheer scale of the economic mess in the uk.

"Eddie George's comments about unemployment in the North being necessary to quell inflationary"

Remember i did not slag eddie george off for his commments. To a large extent i agree with him. I also liked his honesty. Although it was known this was the case during most of the thatcher yrs.

The point is the uk government refused to use the other economic tools available to it to prevent this situation. It is not eddie georges faul the mandate of the BOE was to control inflation and he only had a single tool to do it.

If the uk was to be successful for both the north and south then the uk government had to use other economic tools to dampen overheating in the south which creates the inflation. eg quantitive monetary restrictions, fiscal policy.

And over all trying to move wealth from the south to the north. Tebbit talked of "get on your bike" in relation to getting a job. But we need the same thing from capital and employment within the private sector. However government in the uk actively do not encourage and help prevent the movement of companies north.

For instance when companies complain of skill shortages say IT, rather than encouraging companies to move north they just allow mass immigration to deal with southern skill shortages.

Personally for economic reasons i think the uk government should move government and all associated government organisations and dept from the BBC to bank of england out of london to other british cities.

It would suit both right wing and more leftish economic theory. Right that too much government jobs in london crowds out more private sector activity and leftish in that you are boosting aggregate demand in the north and jobs directly by moving governm
41

Alan B,

23/10/2009 17:26:23
#Ugly George

.... moving government jobs northwards.

Finally the point about sterling is for much of the time it is over valued. And that is what is so damaging to the scottish economy. It is a currency that jumps about all over the place. Look at the way industry was wiped out in the early 80s due to overvaluation. The way lawson ran a silly monetary policy trying to track the DM outside the erm around 87 when they lowered interest rates to silly levels that just ignited inflation as the pound hit highs 3:27 DM if i remember correctly and industry and the cbi were screaming.

To an extent when brown was talking about boom and bust he was correct. ie domestically generated boom and bust (you will always be effected by international events.) the uk economy was alway temp boom due to government lowering interest rates a yr out from a general election and then igniting inflation and bust to control inflation as interest rates were hike. Sterling tend to follow that stupid path and go to heights that destroyed exports and then crashed as we were all in the mire.
42

Huntly loon,

Aberdeenshire 23/10/2009 18:25:00
Iceland, Ireland, Norway.....Please come back....Don't leave us behind in the Arc of Insolvency.
43

Jo Public,

23/10/2009 18:38:57
Worst recession for 50 years? What a co-incidence. We have the worst government for 50 years as well.
44

the_figures_are _fudged,

Galashiels 23/10/2009 18:53:07
Scotland, where the arc of properity meets the Prime Minister of financial doom.

Union dividend my foot.
45

Richard Taylor,

23/10/2009 19:06:58
Rufus???? Rufus???? ........................
46

Sumlogic,

23/10/2009 19:25:52

The UK does not work!

UK is all but bankrupt, why do people still cling on to this sinking ship? In the 70's Scots Oil dug the economy of the UK out of the mire, decades on and the resource is still backing up an even more floundering economy! Remember Bliars theme in 97, "things can only get better" I guess that was aimed at him personally, i.e. his own fortunes!

Its not too late though, Scotland can still have its day, but the people had better get their votes in soon!

Any for the negative folk who still cant see past the glass ceiling, see below!


47

Sumlogic,

23/10/2009 19:26:44

The UK oil and gas industry is a central pillar of our economy.

It invests more than any other (31% of the total), pays more tax than any other (30% of all corporation tax last year) and employs 450,000 people across the UK in high quality jobs with average annual earnings of £50,000.

Today coal, nuclear and renewables together meet about one quarter of Britain's total primary energy needs.

The other three quarters of the energy we need to fuel our cars, trucks and buses, provide heat, light and power to our homes, offices, hospitals and schools and generally power modern living comes from oil and gas.

Luckily for us in Britain, our own production currently meets almost all our need for oil and 70% of our gas.

Furthermore, despite what some say, we import almost no gas from Russia. Today our imports come mostly from Norway.

Allowing in full for the government's ambitious targets for renewable energy, 70% of our primary energy supply in 2020 will still come from oil and gas and so thank goodness we still have our own reserves.

At least 90% of the Oil sits in Scottish Waters
48

Jo'Burg Jock,

South Africa 23/10/2009 19:31:47
Sumlogic,23/10/2009 19:26:44

Now that is called:-

TELLING IT LIKE IT IS!

WELL SAID!


49

The Invigilator,

23/10/2009 19:48:12
#54. "At least 90% of the Oil sits in Scottish Waters"

About 90% of the gunboats belong to Westminster so we'll fight you for it.
50

Sumlogic,

23/10/2009 19:50:12
56
Any day!
51

Jo'Burg Jock,

South Africa 23/10/2009 20:05:45
The Invigilator,23/10/2009 19:48:12

Says:-
"About 90% of the gunboats belong to Westminster so we'll fight you for it."
____________________________________________________

No need!

International law dictates ownership of minerals lying below sea beds and the British government are signatories to these agreements signed under various Geneva Conventions and Continental Shelf agreements.


It's Scottish Oil!!!


The U.N. and N.A.T.O. are obliged to support these conventions and agreements.

SO! YOU CAN SHOVE YOUR THREATS WHERE THE SUN DON'T SHINE!

PEACE MAN!!!

Ha! Ha! Ha!

52

Jo'Burg Jock,

South Africa 23/10/2009 20:26:15
The Invigilator,23/10/2009 19:48:12

Meaning of Invigilator:-

"someone who watches examination candidates to prevent cheating"
_____________________________________________________

Sounds like you are the biggest cheat today.

Invigilator????

My @rse!

53

Finnzz,

23/10/2009 20:31:53
Yes, once again the Labour party has remained true to its ideals and bankrupted the country.

You would think this knack of fecking up the economy every single time they get into power would cause people to avoid them like the plague.

Unfortunately, short memories exist in Labour heartlands, probably due to their votes being bought with promises of work (which never materialises), tax cuts (which are reversed almost immediately, or eroded by stealth), or promises of banishing poverty (well thats a laugh, and a lie! - see Glasgow NE as a typical example).

And they always promise it will be different next time.

Well I seriously hope it will be, when Scotland is Independent.
54

Jo'Burg Jock,

South Africa 23/10/2009 20:39:26
Finnzz,23/10/2009 20:31:53
______________________________________________

It will be different next time.

Because Scotland will be Independent.

55

Brianwci,

23/10/2009 20:48:58
Makes ye proud to be British, so it does.

Those wimps in Iceland or Ireland couldn't handle 6 consecutive 'quarter' falls in a row, not like us Men of Empire........

Ooooooh!! Put that Blutac down you fool you haven't got your Safety Goggles on! What's he like?

NO ONE else has managed this. Do I hear a round of RULE BRITANNIA then?

Mind you.....If this is what it's like after £BILLIONS of extra money has been printed a la quantitative easing what in God's name would the real figures look like?

And of course, we can't 'Print Money' for ever......

....When is Mr Salmond's Independence Referendum due again???? Must make sure I'm registered to vote by then.....
56

The Invigilator,

23/10/2009 20:49:23
#61. "It will be different next time.

Because Scotland will be Independent"

Only if we agree to it.
57

The Invigilator,

23/10/2009 20:58:17
'Ere, JoBurg Jock. Wat you doin in Saff Africa then? Cannat hack yer own country then? Bleedin out of ordah you goin on abaht Scotsland and ye have boggered aff and caant be arst to stay.
58

Jo'Burg Jock,

South Africa 23/10/2009 21:14:28
The Invigilator,23/10/2009 20:49:23

Says:-

Only if we agree to it.
______________________________________________________

Who is WE??

Do you speak on behalf of the British?

Do you speak on behalf of the unionist clowns on this site?

Do you speak on behalf of yourself?

Are you sane?

Why don't you peddle your fascist tripe at the next BNP meeting or your next Lodge Meeting.

"Only if we agree to it."???????????

WTF do you think "you" or "we" are??

You are indeed a silly wee man!


59

Jo'Burg Jock,

South Africa 23/10/2009 21:17:40
The Invigilator,23/10/2009 20:58:17

Says:-
"'Ere, JoBurg Jock. Wat you doin in Saff Africa then? Cannat hack yer own country then? Bleedin out of ordah you goin on abaht Scotsland and ye have boggered aff and caant be arst to stay."
_______________________________________________________

Sorry didn't understand a word!

Do You Speak English?



60

Jo'Burg Jock,

South Africa 23/10/2009 21:22:23
The Invigilator,23/10/2009 20:58:17

You should emigrate yourself, it will increase the Average National I.Q. level.


61

Soloman,

Stirling 23/10/2009 22:37:57

Vote New Labour

Get

The Un elected business Wizard, Mandelson

Postal workers will not want to vote for this crook!

X Vote Snp X

Get

Independence from Westminster
62

,

23/10/2009 23:00:04
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
63

,

23/10/2009 23:06:03
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:
64

Tomdonald,

23/10/2009 23:36:40
As one who lived through the 1929-30 recession I can assure people that they "ain't seen nothing yet". Eck isn't old enough to know much about it, he thinks 1707 is the date when it all went wrong. That was the date when, as I understand it, the Scots decided Roman Catholicism was not for them.
In 2007 most religions are happy to concede that "loving the Lord and one's neighbour as oneself" is the way forward!! CAIRS I think!!
65

,

23/10/2009 23:37:08
Comment Removed By Administrator
Reason:

 

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