What am I talking about? There only is one story around, if you believe the frenzied rantings of various commentators and analysts – the ultimate death of our property market.
For so long now, we've read about how the property market is to nosed
ive; we'll be mired in negative equity and financial instability will befall the entire country.
But what is happening in reality is quite the reverse. The property market – particularly in Edinburgh – is not only holding, it is performing.
Just last week, a report from Savills revealed house prices in the £1million-plus range remaining consistently strong, following a record spell for sales above that level in the last 12 months. Savills recorded 24 sales of £1m-plus homes in December alone – and reported that there is no reason to believe prices or activity across the board will fall in 2008.
Maurice Allan, of Strutt & Parker in Edinburgh, is also reporting brisk sales since the start of the year – with high numbers of viewers, especially in the £400,000-£1.5m range.
Hardly evidence of a property market in disarray.
While I accept there's been a slowdown in the market – which, in fact, is actually good for those people who are looking to buy – activity remains extremely buoyant.
Everyone I know is still busy buying, despite these being the traditionally quieter months. Investors are looking to raise cash, developers are out scouting for new sites, businesses are brokering deals and the banks, surveyors and accountants are being worked flat out.
I have bought four New Town properties in the past few months, totalling in excess of £2.3m. I'll also be spending in the region of £500,000 on refurbishment.
Again, hardly evidence of meltdown.
I can only repeat that if we have survived a run of events unprecedented in their concerted attempts to diminish confidence – such as Northern Rock, the credit crunch, bank collapse rumours, the Budget, the see-sawing stock market – I think we can feel secure that the Edinburgh market is pretty resilient.
However, what I think we will see is the continued domination of a core group of property investors who will lead Edinburgh's unique rental sector, and who are largely unaffected by the credit crunch.
A few years ago there was a big buzz about the man on the street becoming a buy-to-let investor. To be perfectly honest, this group never made up a huge part of the market, and also tended to get out pretty quickly, particularly when things got tough.
That's left a strong core of savvy investors who view property as a long-term store of wealth and as a way of creating capital and financial gain – rather than a way to make a quick buck.
They, like others, will continue to enjoy the benefits of the buy-to-let market, which remains consistently strong due to the fine balance between supply and demand.
So I think we can be sure the property market will be safe – but then again was it ever really in any doubt?
• William Frame is chairman of Braemore Property Management
The full article contains 540 words and appears in The Scotsman newspaper.
