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Goodwin in £10bn fight for survival

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Published Date: 12 October 2008
SIR Fred Goodwin, the chief executive of Royal Bank of Scotland, will put his future on the line this week in a bid to rescue the bank from a crisis that has seen £30bn wiped off its value in the past week alone.
RBS is seeking between £10bn and £12bn to shore up its battered balance sheet, according to analysts, and is expected to tap the Government's £25bn fund announced last week.

Goodwin is also expected to turn to existing shareholders in what one source described as a "part-market, part-Government" arrangement to secure the required capital.

With shareholder sentiment against the banks, this could prove tricky, but Goodwin is believed to have won some support for his plan.

Alistair Darling, the Chancellor, last week unveiled a package of measures designed to support the banking sector. Of the £400bn of new money, £25bn was made available to seven banks and one building society in the form of preference shares or permanent interest-bearing shares.

HSBC, Standard Chartered and Santander – which owns Abbey and is acquiring Alliance & Leicester and some of Bradford & Bingley's assets – said they would not issue new equity.

But Barclays, HBOS, Lloyds TSB and RBS as well as Nationwide Building Society are all expected to draw on the Government's funds. It is thought other building societies will ask for support.

RBS is the most exposed, with the lowest capital ratio – or reserves – and therefore the most in need of money. One of the key issues being hammered out this weekend is what mix of preference and ordinary shares it will require.

Preference shares do not count towards its core tier one ratio, the key measure of the bank's capital strength, and RBS already has a high level of these shares.

Therefore it will seek either ordinary shares from the Government or from other shareholders. But the effect of diluting the share base may weigh further on the share price, which closed on Friday at 71.7p, its lowest since May 1993.

RBS is weakened further because its management has been unpopular with the City since the closure of the deal to acquire Dutch bank ABN Amro, now seen to have been expensive. Without the support of the City, Goodwin and his chairman Sir Tom McKillop are facing an uphill battle to hang on to their jobs. There were calls in April for one or both to go after they tapped shareholders for £12bn in the biggest ever rights issue in Britain. Both were the subject of further feverish speculation last week.

RBS is expected to detail its funding request on Tuesday along with Barclays, which will ask the Government for about £5bn. It is thought Barclays attempted to raise funds from overseas sources that supported it last year, but the current malaise afflicting the banking sector is believed to have deterred foreign institutions from throwing more money at UK banks.

HBOS and Lloyds TSB, which are engaged in merger talks, are likely to request £5bn and £4bn respectively towards the end of this month.

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1

The Strategist,

12/10/2008 00:31:25
I think Goodwin needs to be encouraged to spend more time polishing his car collection.
2

Forward not Back,

12/10/2008 06:05:59
Goodwin should receive the minimum payout possible when he's dumped. Good riddance!
3

Mallory,

Edinburgh 12/10/2008 06:39:58
I think Goodwin should sell his car collection and place the proceeds back into the bank that he has helped bring to this state.
4

vinnie52,

Gogarbunker 12/10/2008 10:19:02
He will not go without a fight, even if it means bringing more of the Bank down with him.
5

Dijit,

Glasgow 12/10/2008 11:59:10
Contrary to other comments I believe RBS cannot afford to lose Goodwin at this time.
His experience in merging acquisitions is first class and he needs to finish the process of integrating ABN.
There is no one out there with proven experience of current financial markets conditions so any change would simply be change for change sake and would involve taking a huge gamble with the odds massively stacked against them.

Fred has every reason to steer RBS through this. Any replacement would simply blame his predecessors if it all went wrong.

It may be helpful if the government reached agreement with other countries to force all banks to divulge exactly what their current financial position is.
A the moment fear of the unknown is running amok.

Personally I believe RBS to be wildly oversold. Once the uncertainty of what the government are going to impose on the banks, I believe full disclosure of their position would trigger a rebound in RBS shares.

Markets are irrational and currently are fueled by negative press stories very few of which are any more than speculative. The press should stop guessing and start reporting proven facts.

6

Evan Owen,

Snowdonia 12/10/2008 12:15:45
Sack him before he makes any more grave errors and costs us taxpayers a lot more, sack all the management at all the banks PDQ, apart from HSBC and maybe Lloyds TSB.

When you go to the market and raise £12 billion without telling the truth as to how bad your exposure to duff assets is you should be imprisoned, what is the FSA doing about it? naff all. Nepotism at its finest at work.
7

paulmort,

Quezon City 12/10/2008 12:36:03
The thing is if you put in a new manager, he will just steel what he can, Just keep him in and take back what ever wealth he en massed during his leadership. Put him on the dole, and let him know what its like to be poor, people like him have never went without.Give him a taste of poverty and then see how he feels.
8

vinnie52,

Gogarbunker 12/10/2008 13:57:55
#5 - agree with the final paragraphs but RBS is not a one-man army, whatever Sir Fred would have the press believe.

Show me the successful integrations since NatWest (nearly 10 years ago - and by the way the actual graft and skill on integration was done by Mark Fisher, amongst others, who remains and is truly key to the next phase). Show me any track record Sir Fred has in integrating overseas businesses.

I wouldn't trust this man with another sackload of cash to spend on spin and burying past mistakes.
9

KampungHighlander,

Jakarta 12/10/2008 14:02:24
I think old Fred the Shred is getting a bit too much blame for all this.

Yes he is guilty of paying to much for RBS's share of ABN AMRO in light of the fact that the values of all Financial Institutions have fallen greatly in the last year.

But remember, the people running Barclays were not any smarter. They where trying to buy all of ABN AMRO at that time and if they had succeed they would probably not be around any more.

So while in hindsight this looks like a pretty stupid purchase, his peers where not any smarter.

You should also be aware that the reason these banks need to go to the government to raise these additional sums is because the Goverment has raised the Tier 1 capital ratios. So as well as offering to provide this money they are also creating the need for it.

I hope he raises it through a rights offering to existing shareholders and tells Brown, Darling and the rest of the idiots to get stuffed. It was their blind faith in deregulated markets that created this crisis in the first place. Any chance we can send them packing without any compensation?

Andy "ASDA" Hornby of HBOS is another story. This glorified shelfstacker has done nothing in the last year while it had become apparent to everyone that relying on wholesale markets for funding was suicide. I hope whoever ends up running HBOS sacks every one of the "Haliban".
10

Cazzkins,

Salisbury 12/10/2008 19:20:26
"But Barclays, HBOS, Lloyds TSB and RBS as well as Nationwide Building Society are all expected to draw on the Government's funds. It is thought other building societies will ask for support."

My understanding was that Nationwide has agreed to be part of the group offered support by the Government as an act of solidarity although it has no intention of drawing any of the funds on offer!
11

vinnie52,

Gogarbunker 12/10/2008 21:55:58
Sky News reports Fred is out. Shredded.
12

Active Sassenach,

Luton, England 12/10/2008 22:41:48
Fred Goodwin had £4 million off Royal Bank last year for being Chief Executive. Sadly, worthy chap though he may be, that £4 million makes him responsible if anything goes wrong and it has. So he has to take the walk of shame.

There are some extraordinary and very entertaining posts above.
#10 Cazzkins. Where does your second paragraph come from? Nationwide BS has relatively low proportions of capital exposed to wholesale markets (34%) and low LTV on its revalued book (41%), but has just rescued Cheshire and Derbyshire. It may well seek capital as a cushion in exchange for PIBS, but, unlike the joint stock banks, this does not dilute its owners.

#9 KampungHighlander. Following Basel II, constraints on Tier 1 capital suddenly appeared at the banks from the FSA like a spectre at the feast did they? You mean there were no whingeing and cringeing consultations that gave plenty of warning well in advance? Fred Goodwin was a man without a plan like a pub with no beer.

#5 Dijit. Ongoing merger integration synergies are rarely a function of leadership by a CEO, who should be working on strategy. They are part of the execution - constrained in this case by the strategic failure in pursuing the ABN AMRO deal at any price. And whose fault was that? Fred Goodwin was CEO.
13

McMillar,

Fife 12/10/2008 22:51:00
Does increasingly look like Fred will announce his resignation on Monday. Probably for the best in current climate as he is seen as the face of everything that is wrong with RBS and there is a lot of sentiment attached to that in the market. I don’t think that’s strictly true but for RBS to mount a significant recovery he has to be out of the picture. Good luck to staff who are impacted by this and those who have seen share plans made worthless. Monday will be very interesting!
14

bumpkin,

12/10/2008 23:55:56
he shoul have to pay back the £12m he has had in bonuses since 2006.
15

John1,

Stirling 13/10/2008 00:22:35
If the cabin boy runs the ship on to the rocks he may be sacked but the captain is, too: it's his job to see the cabin boy does not run the ship on the rocks. Goodwin and co have run the RBS ship on the rocks and should suffer the penalty. I don't want their ilk handling what's left of my money, which they were grossly overpaid to look after. The problem is, how many competent people are there in the banking system these days? Can anyone suggest one?

 

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