THERE is a real possibility that, within a few months, there will hardly be a pig left in Scotland.
That was the stark message delivered yesterday by Jim McLaren, president of NFU Scotland, and his prognosis is supported by official figures tracking the decline in the breeding herd over the past decade.
This relatively small but vitally importan
t sector of the farming industry has been under immense pressure for many months, while last year's foot-and-mouth crisis did little to engender any sense of optimism for the longer-term. It is generally agreed that every pig leaving Scottish farms for slaughter is losing its producer at least £26.
Higher feed costs are clearly a major influence, as the daily ration accounts for almost 80 per cent of total cost of production.
In 1997, Scotland had a pig breeding herd totalling 69,600 sows and younger animals destined for the production chain. The trend since then has been consistently negative and, as of December 2007 according to the official census figures from the Scottish government, the breeding herd had fallen to only 38,600 head – a fall of just over 12 per cent on the year.
This is made worse by the fact that producers reported they were in the process of stepping up the slaughter of sows that would normally have been retained, by just short of 50 per cent.
It is clear that even those who thought that the market would turn in their favour have had enough. This is not good news for arable farmers who have traditionally been the source of a large quantity of barley and wheat to feed the national pig herd – these farmers now face the loss of a major market.
McLaren said: "The word crisis has never been more apt. The Scottish pig industry is losing producers at a rate of knots and if this haemorrhaging continues we will lose our entire Scottish herd. The processing facilities will also disappear if they have no pigs available, and that will see a considerable number of jobs lost."
The turmoil in the world's financial markets has seen sterling devalued against the euro. That should, in theory, make UK and Scottish pork and bacon more competitive against imported products. The downside is that imported proteins are now more expensive.
McLaren added: "Sadly, the pig industry has not seen the benefit of the currency devaluation since retailers have not moved to increase ex-farm prices. Despite enormous input-cost increases, the price per kilo for pig meat has only increased by around 2p over recent months."
Richard Lochhead, the rural affairs secretary, has been in Brussels over the past two days. One of his ambitions was to see the European Commission introduce an aid package for the pig sector in the wake of a submission by Poland to the meeting of the agricultural council. It did not find support from officials. The cost of introducing an export subsidy would not have been significant to the Common Agricultural Policy's annual budget of over £30 billion, but the general view appears to have been it would run counter to the general thrust of reducing direct support to farmers as the World Trade Organisation's negotiations on the liberalisation on reducing tariffs continue.
McLaren, however, is adamant the answer lies with the supermarkets: "It does not take a genius to work out how this problem can be solved. I have been speaking to retailers over recent weeks. They have made promises to increase the price they pay to producers. However, none of them have yet converted these words in to action: that is what is needed to save the pig industry in Scotland.
"We need consumers to check packaging in the supermarkets when they buy pork and bacon if they wish to see Scottish pig products in future."
